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The typical time between aircraft generations replacing each other is in the order of 20 years, sometimes longer. With new aircraft models currently being introduced in almost all seat categories, it is uncertain if the next generation of aircraft will arrive before the 2030s except in the 211 – 300 seat category, as seen in Figure 5. The “middle of the market” aircraft might therefore be the only new aircraft model between the early 2020s and the early 2030s offering significant fuel efficiency improvement relative to its predecessor. This may lead to a discernible slowdown of the annual fuel efficiency improvement rate of the world fleet during this time. On the other hand, this situation may offer the chance of engineering workforces being available to develop radically new aircraft designs for the following generation of commercial aircraft, which from the 2030s would replace the generation of today’s new and imminent aircraft (see Chapter 3). Figure 5: Expected sequence of future aircraft generations in different seat categories, including recent indications on new developments (based on [22]) 2.2. Future Technologies Aircraft entering service in the next few years have the same overall configuration as their predecessors. However, they are equipped with retrofits, serial upgrades and newly designed components and systems, which allow them to have a higher fuel efficiency performance. Table 2 shows a list of the most fuel-efficient retrofits and upgrades installed on the imminent fleet. Another group of new fuel-efficient technologies are under development and planned to be used in new aircraft types in the near future and do not require radically new aircraft configurations. Table 3 contains a list of the most significant future evolutionary aircraft technologies with their Technology Readiness Level (TRL) as defined by NASA [23], which consists of a scale of progressing levels of maturity defined as shown in Figure 6: 16PDF Image | Aircraft Technology Roadmap to 2050
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