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3. Revolutionary Aircraft Technologies As seen in the previous chapter, evolutionary technologies based on conventional tube-and-wing design powered with turbofan engines only have a limited potential for further fuel efficiency improvement. Achieving the long-term industry climate goal (reducing global net aviation CO2 emissions by 50% by the year 2050 relative to 2005) would require further CO2 emissions reductions of over 80% by 2050. A large part of this reduction will likely have to be covered by the use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). However, meeting this highly increasing demand for SAF could be challenging. With strong improvements in fuel efficiency, resulting in a more moderate increase in global fuel demand, this challenge could be alleviated. Thus, even with a strong SAF deployment in future, there is high interest for substantial fuel efficiency improvements in future aircraft including radically new technologies and design concepts. The same considerations are valid in relation to carbon offsets, which are also not available in unlimited quantities. Strong efforts to reduce aviation fuel consumption thus help to better match demand and availability for carbon offsets. Traditional aircraft manufacturers such as Airbus and Boeing, as well as specialized start-up companies such as Zunum Aero and DZYNE, research institutions and academia (DLR, NASA, ONERA, Bauhaus Luftfahrt, among others) are working on a variety of novel aircraft concepts. The major trends in the development of future more efficient aircraft are in novel aircraft configurations as well as revolutionary propulsion technologies, materials and structures. Their development and implementation, including necessary adaptations of the air transport system, require considerable lead times. The first radically new larger commercial aircraft are therefore expected to be able to enter service from about 2035 under optimal framework conditions (Figure 12). This chapter provides a description and an assessment of radically new technology concepts with high fuel efficiency benefits. While it is very likely that the technical development of these new aircraft concepts could be achieved within the next two to three decades, there are economic and commercial constraints that might delay or even prevent their implementation. Figure 12: Potential timeframes for the availability of analyzed aircraft and engine concepts for airliners 3.1. Novel Airframe Configurations While all current commercial aircraft have a conventional tube-and-wing configuration, novel configurations with higher fuel efficiency benefits are also considered for future airframes. Design concepts currently seen as most promising by research establishments include: strut- braced wing, blended wing body, double-bubble and box- /joined-wing aircraft. All these designs are significantly more environmentally friendly than conventional aircraft designs, not only more fuel-efficient, but also quieter. The descriptions below indicate for each concept the preferred applicability to either short or long-haul, the degree of fuel- efficiency benefit and the point in time when technical maturity can be reached under optimal conditions. Strut-braced Wing The strut-braced wing design (SBW) concept utilizes a structural wing support to allow for larger wing spans without increasing structural weight. By increasing the span, the induced drag is reduced and therefore less thrust is needed, which allows installing smaller and lighter engines. Folding wingtips avoid the aircraft exceeding the maximum wingspan of the airport category standard of comparable present aircraft. An additional advantage is that the high wing arrangement allows bigger engine sizes, such as open rotors. Within the “Subsonic Ultra Green Aircraft Research” (SUGAR) studies conducted by Boeing, a 154- seat high aspect-ratio, low induced-drag SBW aircraft was designed. A first configuration was designed with advanced turbo-fan engines for an entry into service in 2030-35 [35]. 21PDF Image | Aircraft Technology Roadmap to 2050
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