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4. Modelling Future Aircraft Emissions In this chapter, a modelling methodology developed by DLR [76] is used to model the potential CO2 savings for a number of technology implementation scenarios for evolutionary and radically new aircraft types, combined with a number of air traffic growth scenarios. Section 4.1 describes the choice of technologies used to build the related scenarios, and Section 4.2 describes the air traffic growth scenarios, which are based upon the 2018 IATA 20-year passenger forecast [1]. 4.1. Selection of Technology Scenarios Each technology scenario consists of a set of aircraft configurations for all future-generation aircraft that are expected to enter the world fleet in the different seat categories (see Figure 5 for the timing of the generations in each seat category). These aircraft configurations need to be selected amongst those that are expected to be available at the planned EIS date. The following technology scenarios were modelled: • Technology scenario 1 (T1): hypothetical reference o Only imminent aircraft, then no introduction of new aircraft programs (hypothetical) • Technology scenario 2 (T2): conservative o Turbofan engines o No radically new configuration • Technology scenario 3 (T3): radical configurations o Turbofan and open-rotor engines o Additional improvement by new aircraft configurations • Technology scenario 4 (T4): towards electrification o Additional improvement by new configurations, same as in T3 o Hybrid and battery-electric propulsion electricity assumed 100% renewable Figure 35 shows the combinations of aircraft and engine configurations selected for each seat category in all four scenarios. Technology Scenario 1 (T1): Only Fixed Aircraft Programs (hypothetical baseline) Technology scenario T1 models a world fleet developing under the selected growth scenario, if only the imminent aircraft programs in Table 1 were introduced. This is equivalent to the introduction of only an N+1 generation in all seat categories, with no further generation following until 2050. T1 represents a hypothetical “reference” or “no 36 change” scenario. It is not expected in reality that no next aircraft generation will be introduced between 2020 and 2050. Figure 35 illustrates the aircraft program matrix associated with the T1 scenario. 51-100 N+2 51-100 N+2 (hybrid) 51-100 N+2 (elec.) 101-150 N+2 (cons.) 101-150 N+2 101-150 N+2 (elec.) 151-210 N+2 (cons.) 151-210 N+2 210-300 N+2 210-300 N+3 (cons.) 210-300 N+3 301-400 N+2 401-500 N+2 501-600 N+2 (cons.) Table 5: Total fuel burn improvement of unfixed aircraft programs Technology Scenario 2 (T2): Conservative T2 describes the development of the world fleet under a conservative technology and aircraft design scenario, i.e. all unfixed aircraft programs rely on a standard tube and wing configuration with turbofan engines. Technology Scenario 3 (T3): New Configurations T3 introduces new aircraft and engine configurations in generations N+2 and N+3. In generation N+2, small blended wing bodies or strut-braced wing aircraft are selected for the 101-150 and 151-210 seat categories, for the seat Aircraft Tech. Total fuel saving [%] Scenario min mean max 2,3 27% 36% 48% 4a 80% 80% 80% 4b 100% 100% 100% 2 26% 34% 46% 3 27% 38% 48% 4b 100% 100% 100% 2 26% 34% 46% 3 27% 38% 48% 2,3,4 24% 30% 40% 2 28% 38% 52% 3 31% 43% 57% 2,3,4 28% 38% 50% 2,3,4 28% 38% 50% 2 27% 36% 51% 3 31% 42% 57% 2 27% 36% 51% 3 31% 42% 57% Seat Genera Category tion 501-600 N+2 N+2 601-650 (cons.) 601-650 N+2PDF Image | Aircraft Technology Roadmap to 2050
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