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categories above 500 seats large blended wing bodies are included into the fleet. Technology Scenario 4 (T4): Towards Electrification In scenario T4, the same aircraft and engine configurations are selected as for scenario T3. In addition, hybrid or battery-electric propulsion is introduced, in analogy to current trends in the automotive industry. Two variants are considered: The first one (T4a, medium optimistic) is inspired by Zunum’s forecast, assuming hybrid-electric Technology scenario T1 (hypothetical baseline) propulsion in the generation N+2 for the 51-100 seat category. The second one (T4b, most optimistic) reflects Wright Electric’s forecast with battery-electric propulsion (100% CO2 reduction) for the 51-100 and the 101-150 seat categories. No improvement for electric propulsion is considered for any of the higher seat categories. Table 5 shows the assumed fuel burn reductions of all future generation aircraft programs selected for the four technology scenarios. Ref. Ref. 51-100 T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF Technology scenario T2 (conservative) T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF L-BWB/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF L-BWB/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF L-BWB/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF L-BWB/TF 51-100 101-150 101-150 101-150 151-210 151-210 151-210 211-200 211-200 211-200 211-200 301-400 301-400 301-400 301-400 401-500 401-500 401-500 501-600 601-650 N+1 Technology scenario T3 (new configurations) T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF S-BWB or SBW/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF S-BWB or T&W/TF T&W/TF 501-600 601-650 N+2 401-500 501-600 Ref. N+1 N+3 51-100 101-150 151-210 601-650 N+1 N+2 N+3 SBW/TF BW/TF Technology scenario T4 (towards electrification) 51-100 T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W HE (T4a), BE (T4b) T&W/TF T&W/TF S-BWB or SBW TF (T4a), BE (T4b) T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF T&W/TF S-BWB or T&W/TF T&W/TF SBW/TF BW/TF Figure 36: Technology scenarios T1 to T4: Selected technologies for each seat category and aircraft generation 501-600 601-650 Ref. N+1 N+2 N+3 T&W: Tube & Wing S-BWB: Small blended wing body BW: box-wing L-BWB: large blended wing body TF: Turbofan HE: hybrid-electric propulsion BE: battery-electric propulsion 37PDF Image | Aircraft Technology Roadmap to 2050
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