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4.2. Fleet Simulation Results The introduction of novel aircraft configurations into the world fleet and their impact on global CO2 emissions of air transport is modelled following a methodology by DLR [76]. It consists of two steps: 1. Evolution of the world fleet of commercial passenger aircraft responding to a certain air traffic demand in the future, three different air traffic growth scenarios are considered (see below). 2. Forecast of the evolution of fuel and CO2 efficiency based on the fuel efficiency and carbon intensity of each aircraft model determined as described above, and global CO2 emissions and traffic calculated by aggregating the single aircraft estimates. The three different air traffic growth scenarios from IATA’s 20-year passenger forecast [1] are selected to simulate the world fleet evolution: • Baseline • UP (including policy stimulus and market liberalization) • DOWN (including pick-up in protectionism, no further travel cost reduction, politically driven travel demand reduction) The forecast has been determined based on the following parameters: • Living standard (GDP per capita) – shows a non-linear jump in middle-income range, e.g. in China • Demographics (Travel demand evolution per age group) • Real costs of travel have gone down 1 to 1.5% p.a. over the past 70 years, savings from technical improvements were passed through to customers • Carbon price impact is considered Figure 38: Fleet forecast modelling, based on the IATA DOWN scenario Figure 39: Fleet forecast modelling, based on the IATA BASE scenario 38 Figure 37: IATA 2017 long-term air traffic forecast Figure 40: Fleet forecast modelling, based on the IATA UP scenarioPDF Image | Aircraft Technology Roadmap to 2050
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