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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2011, 8 3791 breakthrough will be needed in the future. This work is on-going research, and its final results will be published in a subsequent article. The conditions to achieve the economic viability of second-generation biofuels are discussed below. First, it is important that biofuel technologies mature, and the production achieve economies of scale in order to be cost competitive against conventional jet fuel. Some estimates indicate that biofuels will be commercially viable when they reach 1% of the total jet fuel supply. (i.e., 10% of the world’s aircraft fleet is running on a mix of 10% biofuel and 90% Jet A-1). It is estimated that 85% of biofuel production costs relates to the cost of the feedstock. As technology to harvest and process these feedstocks progresses and as they become available in commercial quantities, the price will drop [28]. Owing to their renewable nature, these feedstocks can continue to be produced, over and over again. The price of oil can vary substantially, falling from a high of USD$147 per barrel in June 2008 to $40 in December 2008. This makes it difficult to project when biofuels would be competitive, but there are strong indications that biofuels would become cost-comparable with traditional jet fuel, Jet A-1, by around 2020. If industry considers additional costs of using fossil fuels in addition to the price of the fuel itself, the economic viability of biofuels can come sooner. Note that legislation passed by the European Union in 2008 to include aviation in the EU’s emissions trading scheme (ETS) will add a carbon cost to aviation, requiring airlines to pay for their carbon emissions from 2012 [28]. It is possible that emissions trading schemes will also be developed in other parts of the World. This makes alternative fuel technologies, which reduce emissions compared to traditional jet fuel, especially attractive. Under the European ETS legislation, biofuel use is zero-rated for emissions. Other policies could reduce tax levels on low-carbon fuels such as biofuel. The United States and other governments are on course to make significant investments in sustainable biofuel development. The industry has called on governments to assist potential biofuel suppliers to develop the necessary feedstock and refining systems–at least until the fledgling industry has achieved the necessary critical mass [28]. The positive incentives required include: • Assistance in identifying the most suitable areas in which to grow these crops; • Support in starting the farming and production of algae (e.g., building of facilities, hiring labor resources, buying seeds and setting up any irrigation components); • Incentives for companies to develop the processing and refining capacity needed to turn raw feedstock into biofuel crude oil and then into biojet fuel; • Positive fiscal and legal frameworks to facilitate the economic viability of these new types of fuels so that airlines can use them as quickly as possible. Regarding the last type of incentive, a volume of biofuel, equivalent to the contracted amount, would be guaranteed to enter the aviation fuel supply chain somewhere in the world but would not necessarily be used by the contracting carrier. The carrier would, however, receive the benefit of any carbon savings associated with the cultivation of the fuels (e.g., a 50% saving compared with conventional jet fuel) and could include this in their carbon reporting at the end of a trading period [50]. 5. Conclusions The aviation sector’s fuel efficiency improvements have slowed down since the 1970s due to the slower pace of technological advancement in engine and aerodynamic designs and airframe materials.PDF Image | Analysis of Technological Innovation and Environmental Performance Improvement in Aviation Sector
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