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generation market. In the case of gas turbines, alternative markets included military turbojets, commercial aviation, and industrial turbines for the peak power market.61 From these, we can glean some lessons which might be applied to future technologies. First, until drivers interact and the power generation market expands to incorporate the new technology, other applicable markets should exist - or have potential to exist - for successful and sustained R&D. In addition, there should be potential spurs for expanded demand in R&D. These spurs may be viewed as equivalents to the 1965 blackout which first prompted major interest in gas turbines. A future spur might be concern over global warming and CO2 emissions. A series of criteria for future R&D spending may be proposed with these lessons. • Past performance. The level of technological development may be key to future success. It is important to have a basic research and technology base upon which to build. For example, one reason fusion energy is still a distant dream is that key basic technologies still need to be developed. • Present opportunities. This can include an evaluation of any niche or alternative markets available. Governments may in some cases provide a niche market through its own purchasing power or through subsidization of a market. • Future outlook. The alternative market is meant to be a stepping stone; at some point in the future, there should be a plausible interaction of forces similar to those seen in this study. This anticipated interaction should drive new demand for the new technology. The gas and combined cycle turbine successes resulted from a complicated series of innovations, technology transfers, social concerns and market drivers. Once the recent boom was spurred, the market created a loop of technological improvement followed by implementation and increased market demand for additional improvement. With wise R&D efforts, this path may be emulated by other energy technologies. 61 It is interesting to note how these alternative markets can apply to other developmental technologies which are related to this study. For example, solar energy was used in space applications long before it achieved more practical uses in power generation. A future niche market for this technology might emerge in the peak power industry in certain locations. Another example of applying developments to alternative markets is the case of battery technology, which is of importance to such diverse industries and electric automobiles and laptop computers. 43PDF Image | Energy RD Performance: Gas Turbine Case Study
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