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8 CONCLUSIONS This report describes a technological, economic and environmental evaluation, addressing in particular the potential CO2 emissions abatement of methanol and formic acid synthesis from captured CO2. The results evaluate the competitiveness of each plant. The current study demonstrates that the carbon utilisation processes examined can provide a net contribution to CO2 emissions reduction at plant level (i.e. other echelons of the supply chain are not taken into account). There is a need for R & D in electrolysers to become less expensive, and there is a need to combine CDU with renewable energy; CO2 utilisation processes consuming H2 as a raw material will benefit from specific advances in renewable energy storage. According to the results of this study, currently, the MeOH and FA CDU plants are not competitive in the market. As has been demonstrated by the sensitivity analyses, different conditions are needed for these technologies to reach profitability, and a combination of them would be desirable, e.g. lower electricity and steam prices (also, better plant integration), and higher revenues for using CO2 and/or for the products synthesised by CO2. R & D, especially in the area of the use of state-of-the- art catalysts and solvents, is also crucial to decrease operating costs. Specifically for methanol and formic acid CDU plants and under the hypothesis of the current study: CAN CDU BE PROFITABLE? CDU is not yet profitable under current market conditions. However, favourable conditions, like access to low-cost or even "free" electricity may make the process profitable. In this sense, the CDU plant will have to compete with other Power-to-X options, taking into account which is the best economic pathway for both, the renewable power plant and the Power-to-X plant. Moreover, to achieve a higher TRL, significant investment in R & D will be needed, principally with the aim to decrease operating costs. IS THERE A POTENTIAL TO REDUCE CO2 EMISSIONS? CDU has potential to be part of the CO2 abatement options of the future, as it reduces fossil fuel consumption. At plant level, there is a positive balance for the CDU plant when compared to the equivalent conventional plant. However, H2 and steam have to be obtained from zero CO2 emissions sources. A complete LCA of the specific supply chains for methanol and formic acid (therefore, including the CO2 capture method and the use of the synthesised products) will elucidate the real CO2 emissions reduction of the CO2 utilisation. By 2030, aiming to stimulate the methanol and hydrogen economies in Europe, worldwide production of methanol could increase more than 50 %, and the production of formic acid may be at least 10 times larger than its current global production. HOW REALISTIC IS THIS POTENTIAL? Market penetration pathways were calculated taking into account different market simplifications, not only in the market itself, but also in the renewable source's business model. A high market penetration will depend on the evolution of the transport sector, and on actions to encourage greater use of methanol and formic acid (hydrogen). Note that the figures presented here for plant performance and market demand, due to the hypotheses considered, represent upper values, or an optimistic scenario. We estimate that more accurate calculations, taking into account the discussed points in the previous section, will provide values below the estimated penetration pathways' quantities of the current report. 65PDF Image | evaluation of CO2 utilisation for fuel production
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