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Putting CO2 to Use: Creating Value from Emissions Technical analysis Figure 13. oil industry, with an annual consumption of around 70 to 80 MtCO2 for enhanced oil recovery (EOR), primarily in North America (Box 1). The remaining share represents a wide range of commercial applications, predominantly the food and beverage sector, but also in other industries such as metal working, chemicals manufacturing, water treatment and healthcare. The consumption of CO2 for the production of CO2-derived fuels, chemicals and building materials today is negligible compared to other applications. Today, around 33% of the global CO2 demand comes from North America, followed by China (21%) and Europe (16%). Global demand for established CO2 uses is growing steadily year-on-year, with an estimated average annual growth rate of 1.7% per year through to 2022 (IHS Markit, 2018). By extrapolating this trend, the annual consumption would reach approximately 270 MtCO2 in 2025. The CO2 used today is predominantly sourced from industrial processes that produce high- purity CO2 as a by-product, such as ammonia production and biomass fermentation, or extracted from natural underground CO2 deposits (mainly for EOR purposes). Supply per industrial source may be in the order of 10 000 to 500 000+ tonnes of CO2 (tCO2) per year, with individual non-EOR customers typically requiring relatively small volumes (US EPA, 2018). Growth in global CO2 demand over the years (left) and breakdown of demand in 2015 (right) Beverages (3%) Food (3%) Fab. metal (2%) Other (4%) Urea (57%) EOR (34%) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 230 150 272 250 2020 2025 2000 2015 Notes: Projections for future global CO2 demand are based on an average year-on-year growth rate of 1.7%. Sources: Analysis based on ETC (2018), Carbon Capture in a Zero-Carbon Economy; IHS Markit (2018), Chemical Economics Handbook – Carbon Dioxide, US EPA (2018), Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2016. Global consumption of CO2 is estimated to be 230 Mt/yr and expected to grow steadily over the coming years; consumption is mainly driven by EOR and on-site demand for urea production. The price of CO2 is usually determined through negotiations between suppliers and consumers and tends to differ considerably per region and industry. CO2 from ammonia producers can yield a price ranging from USD 3 to USD 15 tCO2 under long-term contracts, while prices for niche markets with small volumes and a high degree of purity can be USD 400/tCO2 or even much higher (GCCSI, 2011; CarbonCure, 2018). One of the main issues for the industry is balancing supply and demand. The supply of CO2 is intimately bound to ammonia and fertiliser manufacturing, which is typically carried out in the autumn and winter months ahead of spring PAGE | 21 IEA. All rights reserved. MtCO2/yrPDF Image | Putting CO2 to Use Creating value from emissions
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