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Putting CO2 to Use: Creating Value from Emissions Technical analysis Energy input To provide climate benefits, the use of low-carbon energy is critical. This is particularly important for CO2-derived products and services requiring large amounts of energy for the CO2 conversion process, such as fuels and chemical intermediates. Other energy-intensive steps across the life cycle are the capture of CO2 and the transport of raw materials. The use of fossil energy sources, such as coal and gas-fired power plants, would result in high life-cycle emissions, thus offsetting the potential climate benefits arising from the displacement of a more carbon-intensive product or service. Retention time of carbon in the product The retention time of carbon in a CO2-derived product has a large impact on the climate benefits: the longer the carbon is retained, the smaller the climate impact of the emitted CO2. In some products (building materials), carbon is permanently stored, while in other products (fuels and chemicals) the carbon is only temporarily retained and ultimately released back to the atmosphere in the form of CO2. As can be expected, products offering permanent carbon retention provide the largest climate benefits. Temporary storage can range from less than 1 year for fuels, up to 10 years for most chemical intermediates, to hundreds of years for polymers, while permanent storage in building materials lasts for millions of years. The release of CO2 can also depend on the end-of-life pathway for certain products; for example, plastics may be recycled, incinerated or landfilled. While accounting for permanent carbon retention in LCA assessments is relatively straightforward, current LCA methods were not designed to distinguish between various temporary carbon retention times. Several approaches have been proposed to address this challenge, but consensus among experts has yet to be reached on how to deal with this time-related aspect within LCA assessments.11 Is it possible to assess the future market size? The challenges inherent in assessing the market potential for CO2-derived products and services is reflected in extremely wide-ranging global estimates, from 1 gigatonne (Gt) per year to 7 Gt in 2030 (Table 2). The figure of 7 Gt equates to nearly 20% of the global CO2 emissions today, which is considered extremely optimistic. Most CO2 conversion technologies are still in an early stage of development and neither their technical performance nor their cost-effectiveness is well understood. Assessing their potential for scale-up necessitates assumptions on future technical performance, costs, time to reach maturity, their relative competiveness over competing production routes, the capacity of industry and consumers to adapt to a new technology, the capacity to overcome inherent industry inertia, and so on. Also, all these factors are highly specific to different applications and sectors. Assessing the future climate mitigation potential of CO2 use is even more challenging; it depends on the carbon-intensity of the energy and material sources as well as on the reference product or service replaced. In practice these are difficult to determine. 11 Current guidelines for LCAs were not designed to account for the carbon retention time and prescribe the use of a constant 100- year global warming potential. This means that products retaining carbon for less than 100 years would count the oxidation and release back to the atmosphere within the life-cycle assessment, whereas products offering storage of longer than 100 years would not. PAGE | 36 IEA. All rights reserved.PDF Image | Putting CO2 to Use Creating value from emissions
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