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Putting CO2 to Use: Creating Value from Emissions Technical analysis Table 2. Estimations of the potential for CO2 use in various publications Source Year Projection on CO2 Estimate (Gt/yr) Time period IPCC 2005 Avoidance < 1.0 Medium term GCCSI Armstrong and Styring 2011 Demand 2015 Demand 0.5 - 1.87 1.34 Future 2030 2030 DNV 2011 Avoidance 3.7 None provided Global CO2 Initiative Note: Some estimates consider the amount of CO2 used, while others estimate CO2 avoided. 7 2016 Demand Sources: Based on IPCC (2005), IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage; Table 1.4 in GCCSI (2011), Accelerating Uptake of CCS: Industrial Use of Captured Carbon Dioxide, excluding non-conversion uses; DNV (2011), Carbon dioxide utilization – electrochemical conversion of CO2 – opportunities and challenges; Armstrong, K. and P. Styring (2015), Assessing the potential of utilization and storage strategies for post-combustion CO2 emissions reduction; Global CO2 Initiative (2016), Global CO2 initiative launches with ambitious strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2. In IEA scenario analysis, CO2 use plays a limited role as part of the portfolio of technologies and measures needed to achieve global energy and climate goals (Box 5). Although not a comprehensive examination of the potential for CO2 use12, the analysis finds that cumulative CO2 use would increase by a modest 4% (330 MtCO2) in the period to 2060 in a pathway consistent with the Paris Agreement climate goals – the Clean Technology Scenario (CTS) – relative to the Reference Technology Scenario (RTS). However, in further scenario analysis that limits the availability of CO2 storage while meeting climate goals, the role of CO2 use increases by 77% relative to the CTS (Box 5). Box 5. The role of CO2-derived products in a clean technology scenario The IEA Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) scenario analysis incorporates several pathways for CO2 use: methanol as a raw material for production of chemical intermediates, liquid transport fuels (kerosene, gasoline and diesel) and methane to replace natural gas.13 All three applications require hydrogen for the conversion process, which is produced using renewable electricity. Three scenarios were explored in recent analysis (IEA, 2019b): Reference Technology Scenario (RTS): is broadly based on an extrapolation of current trends and builds on current levels of policy ambition. Clean Technology Scenario (CTS): embodies a vision to reduce global energy-and process- related CO2 emissions by almost 75% in 2060, relative to today. Limited CO2 Storage scenario variant (LCS): assesses the energy system-wide implications of a possible failure or delay in making CO2 storage available at the scale of the CTS. Limited storage availability could, for example, arise from a lack of investment in the assessment and characterisation of specific storage sites. In the LCS, total cumulative CO2 storage is limited to 10 GtCO2. 12 The analysis considers CO2 use only for the production of methanol, liquid fuels and methane, and excludes non-energy applications (such as building materials). Early-stage CO2 conversion technologies are also excluded due to the considerable uncertainty attached to their technical performance and costs. 13 Further information on the process descriptions, modelling assumptions and scenarios can be found in the report Exploring Clean Energy Pathways: The Role of CO2 Storage (IEA, 2019b). PAGE | 37 IEA. All rights reserved.PDF Image | Putting CO2 to Use Creating value from emissions
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