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Putting CO2 to Use: Creating Value from Emissions Technical analysis to play a major role in many sectors. For example, in the absence of stringent climate policies, global crude oil demand for the transport sector is expected to grow over the coming years to approximately 2 880 to 3 100 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) (121 to 130 EJ) in 2030, up from 2 567 Mtoe (107 EJ) in 2017 (IEA, 2018a). A relatively large share of transport fuel demand is in market segments with few low-carbon alternatives, especially aviation. Given the high fuel demand, there are no technical constraints to produce volumes of 7.3 Mt (165 PJ) of CO2-derived methanol or 3.6 Mt (182 PJ) of CO2-derived methane annually, which each correspond to around 10 Mt of CO2 per year. If the necessary hydrogen were to be produced through electrolysis, some 140 TWh of renewable electricity input would be needed. This represents less than 0.5% of current global electricity production. While the energy input and new capacity for hydrogen and fuel manufacturing corresponding with the use of 10 MtCO2 per year would be significant, this can be accommodated if distributed over large areas. Under what conditions would CO2-derived fuels be competitive? The main cost components for the production of CO2-derived fuels are the capital expenditure, hydrogen, electricity, and CO2 feedstock. At present, the cost of producing CO2- derived fuels is multiple times higher than the market price in most regions in the world (Figure 23). Indicative production costs of CO2-derived fuels in the near and long term Figure 23. 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Near-term Long-term Near-term Long-term Near-term Long-term CO2-derived methane CO2-derived methanol CO2-derived liquid fuels CO2 feedstock costs - high CO2 feedstock costs - low Electricity costs OPEX CAPEX Gas price - USD 7/Mbtu Methanol price - USD 350/t Diesel price - USD 75/bbl Notes: Power-to-liquid fuels refer to the production of hydrocarbon liquid fuels via FT synthesis including upgrading; CAPEX: electrolyser near-term USD 700/kWe and long-term USD 450/kWe long-term, FT synthesis near-term USD 750/kWliq and long-term USD 550/kWliq, methanation near-term USD 740/kwgas and long-term USD 560/kWgas, methanol synthesis near- and long-term USD 46/(tCH3OH/yr); renewable electricity price of USD 50/MWh at 3 000 full load hours in near-term and USD 25/MWh in the long term; CO2 feedstock costs lower range based on CO2 from bioethanol production at USD 30/tCO2 in the near and long term; CO2 feedstock costs upper range based on DAC at USD 400/tCO2 based in the near term and USD 100/tCO2 in the long term; discount rate 8%. Source: IEA (2019a), The Future of Hydrogen: Seizing Today’s Opportunities. Future cost reductions for CO2-derived fuels will depend on lowering the electricity costs, with cost reductions for CO2 feedstocks also being critical for synthetic hydrocarbons. PAGE | 44 IEA. All rights reserved. USD/MWhPDF Image | Putting CO2 to Use Creating value from emissions
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