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Putting CO2 to Use: Creating Value from Emissions Technical analysis The chief cost factor is typically electricity, accounting for about 40-70% of the production costs. With an electricity price of USD 20/MWh, would be is equivalent to USD 60-70/bbl when used for liquid hydrocarbon production and USD 10-12 per million British thermal units (MBtu) of methane. These prices are already close to the price range of fossil fuel options without adding capital expenditure, operating and maintenance costs (OPEX), CO2 feedstock cost and other costs. Reducing the cost of electricity is therefore an important goal, together with increasing the overall efficiency of the conversion chain. CO2 feedstock costs can be an important further cost component, depending on the price and source of CO2. For example, CO2 feedstock costs of USD 30/tCO2 translate for synthetic diesel into a cost of USD 13/bbl; CO2 feedstock costs of USD 100/tCO2 into a cost of USD 42/bbl. CO2-derived fuels can be produced competitively in locations where low-cost renewable electricity and CO2 are abundant and prices for fossil fuels are high. An example is Iceland, where methanol is commercially produced from geothermal energy and CO2 (Box 6). Over time, production costs of CO2-derived fuels are expected to come down, mainly due to capital cost reductions and availability of cheap renewable electricity and feedstock CO2 (Figure 23). Nevertheless, CO2-derived methane and CO2-derived liquid fuels, such as diesel or aviation fuels, will continue to be uncompetitive in the absence of a stringent CO2 price regime. On the other hand, in the long term, CO2-derived methanol may become competitive in more regions in the world, depending on local methanol market prices. High CO2 prices (or equivalent policies discouraging fossil fuel use) would be needed for CO2-derived methane, methanol and CO2-derived diesel to become competitive with fossil fuel alternatives. If for example synthetic diesel can be produced at costs of USD 150/bbl, an equivalent CO2 price of USD 180/tCO2 would be needed for synthetic diesel to become competitive with fossil diesel at USD 75/bbl (Figure 24). The high level of equivalent CO2 prices that would be needed for synthetic hydrocarbon fuels from electrolytic hydrogen to compete with fossil fuels suggests that the use of synthetic hydrocarbon fuels at a larger scale is unlikely in the near term. CO2-derived fuels must also compete with other low-carbon energy carriers. As the production of CO2-derived methanol and methane involves energy losses with each conversion step, i.e. from electricity to hydrogen to fuel, it will be unable to compete with hydrogen and electricity on an energy basis (Figure 22), unless the costs of the additional conversion steps are lower compared to the cost of a new hydrogen and electricity infrastructure. In sectors where direct use of hydrogen and electricity is extremely challenging, for example in aviation, CO2-derived fuels must compete with other low-carbon energy carriers such as biofuels. PAGE | 45 IEA. All rights reserved.PDF Image | Putting CO2 to Use Creating value from emissions
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