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Working Paper ID-065 the increased availability of cheap natural gas within the United States has provided a competitive advantage to domestic chemical manufacturers.74 Moreover, industrial production and related emissions reportedly increase when natural gas prices are low.75 But some CCU projects could become less competitive in the United States because lower cost fossil fuels could make alternative feedstocks such as waste CO2 more expensive and, therefore, less competitive. Overall Impact on Production Costs The overall impact on production costs of using waste carbon feedstocks varies, largely depending on whether fuels or chemicals are produced and also versus the comparable feedstock. For example, one industry source states that production of fuels from recycled carbon is more expensive than fuels produced from fossil fuels but can be competitive with some fuels produced from biomass. Also, for companies currently producing biofuels, the eventual production of downstream value-added chemicals in addition to the fuels is likely to enhance the economics of such projects.76 In general, however, several of the companies manufacturing chemicals from waste carbon streams have estimated cuts in production costs (largely resulting from the feedstocks) of about 20–50 percent.77 Companies that cited reductions of about 20 percent observed that they were being conservative either because the projects are in their early stages or because the chemistry of the processes limits the amount of CO2 used as a feedstock and, therefore, the savings.78 In comparison, Phytonix Solar Chemicals states that they can produce butanol for about $2 per gallon, reducing production costs by more than 50 percent compared to fossil-based production.79 In a 2018 presentation, the company stated that its CO2 feedstock costs were about $0.35 per gallon of butanol in the 4th quarter of 2017 (said to be based on CO2 costing about $40 per ton) versus other producers’ propylene feedstock costs of $2.75 per gallon of butanol.80 Aramco Performance Materials, which has projects underway addressing the production of polyols from waste carbon with CO2 concentrations in the final product of about 40–50 percent by weight, has stated that the cost of waste carbon is “consistently 90–95 percent less expensive than petroleum based feedstock.”81 74 Vincent Valk, “ACC: Trade, Manufacturing Weakness Weigh on Outlook,” Chemical Week, December 16/23, 2019, 7. 75 Pitt et al., “Taking Stock 2019,” Rhodium Group, July 8, 2019. 76 Industry representative, email to USITC staff, September 18, 2019. Traditionally, production of higher value biobased chemicals (e.g., as co-products) has made biofuel production economically feasible. Nesbitt, “China’s Vision for Renewable Energy,” JICE, 2011. 77 Industry representatives, telephone interviews with USITC staff, October 30, 2018, and September 13, 2019, and email to USITC staff, September 17, 2019. 78 Industry representatives, telephone interviews with USITC staff, September 13, 2019. 79 Phytonix Solar Chemicals, “Phytonix Corporation Unleashes a New Carbon Dioxide Utilization (CDU) Technology to Combat Climate Change,” July 18, 2019; Phytonix Solar Chemicals, “Biological Carbon Dioxide Utilization Technology for the Production of Low Cost Industrial Chemicals Utilizing Photosynthesis,” presentation at C02 Reuse Summit, May 16-17, 2018; Phytonix Solar Chemicals, “15th Carbon Dioxide Utilization Summit 2020 on 26th- 27th February 2020 in Orlando, Florida,” November 13, 2019; Phytonix Solar Chemicals, “Sustainable Chemistry Powered by the SunTM” (accessed January 16, 2020). 80 Phytonix Solar Chemicals, “Biological Carbon Dioxide Utilization Technology for the Production of Low Cost Industrial Chemicals Utilizing Photosynthesis,” presentation at C02 Reuse Summit, May 16-17, 2018. 81 Aqil Jamal, “Saudi Aramco Carbon Capture and Utilization R&D,” Aramco Performance Materials, presentation, March 5, 2018; BuzzInnovation, “Looking Beyond Fossil Fuels,” June 13, 2019. 20 | www.usitc.govPDF Image | Using Waste Carbon Feedstocks to Produce Chemicals
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