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DECARBONIZING SPACE HEATING WITH AIR SOURCE HEAT PUMPS 1. INTRODUCTION The Paris Agreement sets a goal of limiting the global average temperature increase to “well below” 2°C (3.6°F) compared to preindustrial levels. It also calls on countries to “pursue efforts” to limit the increase to 1.5°C (2.7°F) and achieve net zero emissions globally by the second half of this century. To accomplish these goals, the global energy system will need to be reshaped to run on mostly carbon-free sources. That transition will involve cutting energy waste, shifting electricity production to carbon-free sources, and using electricity to satisfy a greater share of energy demand, among other strategies. In the United States, the use of fossil fuels in commercial and residential buildings is currently responsible for roughly 12 percent of greenhouse gas emissions. Despite this significant contribution, the sector has received less attention with respect to decarbonization strategies than either the power sector (28 percent) or the transportation sector (29 percent). Strategies for decarbonizing both the power sector and transportation sector are in general better developed than those for building heating.2 In prominent studies of pathways to a low-carbon US energy system, shifting from furnaces and boilers powered by fossil fuels to air source heat pumps (ASHPs) powered by zero-carbon electricity is the primary strategy for decarbonizing space heating. However, these studies show a wide range of outcomes on the potential for ASHPs to contribute to zero emissions space heating in the United States by midcentury. The more optimistic studies show the near- universal electrification of space heating over the next few decades, with ASHPs playing an important role, while the more pessimistic studies show electricity failing to even displace natural gas as the leading space heating fuel. Taken as a whole, this literature leaves policy makers with more questions than answers: What are the largest barriers to the widespread adoption of ASHPs? Are ASHPs the best technology for decarbonizing space heating? Are large investments needed in alternative carbon-free space heating technologies? This paper is intended for policy makers who wish to make sense of the disparate evidence on the potential for the adoption of air source heat pumps in the United States. It explains that ASHPs are already competitive with fossil fuels in certain regions of the country and that innovation and policy support are likely to make ASHPs more competitive in the years ahead. It also explains the barriers that stand in the way of zero emissions space heating, including costs, performance in cold climates, existing infrastructure, and consumer behavioral tendencies. Our goal is to provide policy makers with a better understanding of the potential of air source heat pumps and how policies can help realize this potential. The remainder of the paper proceeds as follows: ● Section 2 describes the market for space heating in the United States today. ● Section 3 introduces the technologies available for decarbonizing space heating, focusing in particular on ASHPs. 8 | CENTER ON GLOBAL ENERGY POLICY | COLUMBIA SIPAPDF Image | DECARBONIZING SPACE HEATING WITH HEAT PUMPS
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