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5. A SIMPLE MODEL OF HEAT PUMP ADOPTION The detailed models described in the previous section provide important information about possible future energy systems, but these models can be black boxes to nonpractitioners. It can be difficult to isolate factors that lead to specific results in the models. We built a simple model that compares the costs of installing and operating an ASHP with natural gas furnaces (the current market leader in space heating). The purpose was to help fill an important hole left by the existing literature. As described in the previous section, when fossil fuel options can continue to compete in the market, prominent studies show that the complete decarbonization of space heating is not achieved by midcentury when ASHPs are used as the primary decarbonization tool. However, these studies do not explain why ASHPs are insufficient. Two explanations are plausible: ● First, it may be that ASHP technology is not up to the task, even with technology and policy improvements, because costs are too high or performance is not good enough compared to natural gas furnaces. ● A second possibility is that noncost or performance factors such as lack of information or status quo bias are important barriers. Policy design may vary significantly depending on the degree to which either of the two explanations is correct. Our analysis focuses on hypothetical consumers installing new heating and cooling equipment in residential buildings. The consumers have the option to purchase an ASHP for heating and cooling (with backup if needed) or a natural gas furnace and an air conditioner. We examine hypothetical consumers in three US cities—San Diego, California; Atlanta, Georgia; and Fargo, North Dakota—chosen due to the range of climates and energy prices in these cities. We portray residential consumers making decisions in the early- to mid-2030s and operating the equipment for 15 years, which was chosen so that the equipment’s useful life ends around 2050. We start with a base scenario with assumptions on prices, equipment costs, and policies that reflect current or recent historical data. Then we examine three scenarios that reflect changes in technologies and policies over the next decade that may be likely in a jurisdiction that has committed to decarbonization by midcentury. The uncertainties associated with projecting consumer decisions decades into the future with a simple model are too extensive to name individually. Technologies, economies, and consumer preferences will all change in unexpected ways, and consumer decisions are vastly more complicated than portrayed by a comparison of the costs of installing and operating equipment. However, the simplicity of the analysis enables a straightforward description of the major drivers of the cost differences between ASHPs and natural gas furnaces and how these differences are affected by key uncertainties. DECARBONIZING SPACE HEATING WITH AIR SOURCE HEAT PUMPS ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDU | DECEMBER 2019 | 23PDF Image | DECARBONIZING SPACE HEATING WITH HEAT PUMPS
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CO2 Organic Rankine Cycle Experimenter Platform The supercritical CO2 phase change system is both a heat pump and organic rankine cycle which can be used for those purposes and as a supercritical extractor for advanced subcritical and supercritical extraction technology. Uses include producing nanoparticles, precious metal CO2 extraction, lithium battery recycling, and other applications... More Info
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