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DECARBONIZING SPACE HEATING WITH AIR SOURCE HEAT PUMPS 5.1. Results from the Base Scenario Figure 6 compares the up-front capital costs of (i) a natural gas furnace and air conditioner combination and (ii) an ASHP, with backup if necessary. (In buying an appliance, consumers pay more attention to the up-front capital cost than projected fuel costs over the lifetime of the appliance.) Costs were determined using assumptions on equipment, prices and policies drawn from current or recent historical data. (Sources are described in the Appendix.) Different thermal capacity is appropriate for different climates, so average costs differ by city. The ASHP option is more expensive in San Diego and Atlanta but less expensive in Fargo, although the differences in capital costs are under 20 percent in each city. Figure 6: Comparison of up-front capital costs of heating and cooling alternatives The differences in the costs of heating and cooling are far larger. Figure 7 shows the net present value (NPV)36 costs of an ASHP (with backup if necessary) compared to a natural gas furnace and air conditioner combination, separating capital and maintenance costs from fuel costs over the lifetime of the equipment. In Fargo, with its extremely cold climate, lifetime fuel and electricity costs are very high: four to six times the capital cost of the equipment. In San Diego, with its moderate climate, lifetime fuel and electricity costs are low: less than the capital cost of the equipment. In Atlanta, the NPV costs of the ASHP option is only 8.1 percent (or $416) more than the natural gas furnace option, due to the relatively high costs of natural gas and mild winters in the city. In San Diego, relatively lower natural gas prices and higher electricity prices make natural gas furnaces the cheaper option by $665, or 21.6 percent. A much larger cost difference exists in Fargo, where ASHPs are $3,193 (or 31.3 percent) more expensive than the 24 | CENTER ON GLOBAL ENERGY POLICY | COLUMBIA SIPAPDF Image | DECARBONIZING SPACE HEATING WITH HEAT PUMPS
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