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DECARBONIZING SPACE HEATING WITH AIR SOURCE HEAT PUMPS 2. A Strong Climate Policy Scenario: Strong policies are implemented to discourage greenhouse gas emissions. While such policies could take many forms, as a proxy, this scenario assumes a price on carbon rises to $150 per metric ton of carbon dioxide emissions by the mid-2030s. This is comparable to the carbon price assumed in the EPRI electrification study39 and the price on carbon proposed by a bipartisan groups of Senators and House members in legislation introduced in the US Congress in 2018 and 2019.40 Such a climate policy would significantly decarbonize the US power system by the 2030s. We assume that the carbon intensity of electricity production falls by 75 percent compared to the Base Scenario.41 3. A Moderate Technological Progress and Climate Policy Scenario: This scenario combines the previous two. It assumes the climate policy is half as stringent as the strong climate policy scenario, with carbon prices rising to $75 per metric ton by the mid-2030s, and it assumes the costs and performance of ASHPs both improve by 15 percent over that period. Figure 8 shows the difference in NPV of lifetime costs between the ASHPs and natural gas furnace options for the three scenarios and three cities. The Base Scenario results are the same as displayed above, with the ASHP option more expensive in each scenario and the magnitude of the cost differences varying widely by city. The results in the Strong Technological Progress and Strong Climate Policy scenarios tell a different story. With strong technological progress, the ASHP option becomes less expensive than the natural gas furnace and air conditioner combination in San Diego and Atlanta. With strong climate policies, the ASHP option becomes less expensive in Atlanta and Fargo. And with moderate technological progress and moderate climate policies, the ASHP option is less expensive in all three cities. Even in Fargo, where a backup heat source is needed when it gets particularly cold (provided by electric resistance heating in this example), the ASHP option is less expensive under strong climate policies due to the impact of avoiding the extra costs associated with fossil fuel use in these scenarios. Of course, different assumptions produce different results, including results that flip the low- cost alternative in certain scenarios and cities. But the cost competitiveness of ASHPs in these three regions in the technological progress and climate policy scenarios is robust to a wide range of assumptions in this simplified model. By looking at only typical residences, this model misses important heterogeneity in needs and preferences that influence the costs and other barriers (referenced in Section 3) to the deployment of ASHPs, so the results should not be interpreted to imply that either option is less costly in all situations. 26 | CENTER ON GLOBAL ENERGY POLICY | COLUMBIA SIPAPDF Image | DECARBONIZING SPACE HEATING WITH HEAT PUMPS
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