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Figure 8: Lifetime costs of ASHPs as compared to furnace/air conditioner combination Note: Lifetime cost is calculated as the net present value of the costs over the 15-year life of the appliance using a 10 percent discount rate 5.3. Summing Up Returning to the question posed at the beginning of this chapter—what are the major barriers inhibiting ASHPs in deep decarbonization scenarios? The results of this analysis suggest that in a jurisdiction committed to carbon-free space heating in a midcentury time frame, costs and performance of air source heat pumps are unlikely to be major barriers. Even in very cold regions where ASHP deployments are most challenging, a large shift from furnaces to ASHPs (with backup) will not be cost prohibitive and may even result in substantial savings. Given the simplicity of the model and limited number of situations considered, we do not conclude that ASHPs will be more cost effective than natural gas furnaces in all situations. Moreover, other significant barriers still stand in the way of ASHPs as a primary space heating decarbonization strategy. As discussed in the following section, policy makers committed to zero emissions space heating will need to decide whether to confront the full spectrum of barriers to ASHPs or advance other decarbonization strategies. DECARBONIZING SPACE HEATING WITH AIR SOURCE HEAT PUMPS ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDU | DECEMBER 2019 | 27PDF Image | DECARBONIZING SPACE HEATING WITH HEAT PUMPS
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