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investigate the impact of various refrigerant properties, (3) models that focus on total (climate relevant) emission reductions from the application of RACHP equipment, departing from assumptions or data on the number of pieces of equipment of certain types in the RAC(HP) subsector, and (4) inventory (bottom-up) models that calculate the amounts of refrigerant charged into RACHP equipment (i.e., the demand), where the equipment numbers are based on sales data of various types of equipment for a country or region; this can also be defined as the (global or regional) bank of refrigerants. A description of the latter model is given in the Annex to the 2010 RTOC Assessment Report. This type of model has been applied for the scenario calculations up to the year 2050 in various TEAP Task Force reports that investigated possible future high GWP HFC as well as low GWP refrigerant demand. Reports were published in the period 2012-2016. It is quite challenging to find good data on the production of various types of equipment and the related sales for domestic use and export; needless to say that these are extremely important data for any “bottom-up” inventory method. Good progress has been made up to 2018 in determining these parameters; it is expected that the availability of all the data and parameters will enable to develop adequate “bottom-up” scenarios for the refrigerant demand (as well as the related banks and emissions) during the next assessment period (2019-2022). In 2014 and 2015, the RTOC inventory model was used for studies described in the XXV/5 and XXVI/9 Task Force reports. In 2016, the inventory model was used in the Decision XXVII/4 Task Force report, in order to further investigate the demand for high GWP HFCs and low GWP fluids for the RACHP sector until 2050. In particular, the impact of the length of the conversion period of the manufacturing in certain refrigeration and AC sub-sectors was considered. In 2016, the results of the RTOC inventory model were used to create a sort of database for the demand of all RACHP subsectors for a business as usual scenario for the period 2015-2050; this was done separately for non-Article 5 and Article 5 parties. Next to the RACHP sectors, data estimates were generated (and extrapolated into the future) for other HFC consuming sectors (foams, aerosols, fire protection). Using all these data, the HFC amendment proposals available in 2016 were evaluated and compared, this in particular where it concerns their climate benefits compared to a BAU scenario. Growth rates assumed for the various subsectors for the period until 2050 were given in the XXVII/4 Task Force report. This report paid a great deal of attention to the length of the manufacturing conversion period and its impact on total (manufacturing and servicing) demand, dependent on various mitigation scenarios. All scenarios were determined for the groups of both non-Article 5 and Article 5 parties. It will be clear that this method can also be used for separate countries, once sufficient input data on the equipment base and past refrigerant demand will be available. The adoption and ratification of the Kigali Amendment is expected to drive new studies on the impact of the use of lower and low GWP fluids. This is likely to also include further emphasis on the impact of energy efficiency and the consequences for energy demand and related CO2 emissions. The quality of rapidly evolving technical data will be important. This for modelling all aspects needed to provide timely conclusions on mitigation offered by lower and low GWP fluids and by lower indirect emissions, thereby enabling to prioritise policies. 2018 TOC Refrigeration, A/C and Heat Pumps Assessment Report 17PDF Image | Heat Pumps Technical Options
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