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national or regional growth parameters (e.g., far more growth in AC cooling equipment than can be derived from general GDP parameters). It is therefore quite challenging to find good data on the production of various types of equipment and the related sales for domestic use and export; needless to say, that these are extremely important data (or parameters) for any “bottom-up” method. It can be stated that good progress has so far been made up to the year 2018 in determining these parameters, albeit with considerable uncertainty ranges, based on the publication of sales data and on specific refrigerant manufacturing information for the period 2014-2017. It is expected that the availability of all the data and parameters will enable to develop adequate “bottom-up” scenarios for the refrigerant demand (as well as the related banks and emissions) during the next 4 year assessment period (2019-2022), i.e., towards the freeze year for HFCs for the Group I Article 5 countries as mandated under the Kigali Amendment. One important issue needs to be mentioned here, which is the check of the “bottom-up” refrigerant demand data for the R/AC sector with reliable chemical manufacturing data for both HCFCs and HFCs globally, as well on one or more regional bases. It is an advantage that the (RACHP) market for (high GWP) HFC chemicals can be determined reasonably well since the use of (certain) high GWP HFCs for other application sectors is quite moderate and can be estimated pretty well. However, it does need to be acknowledged that this does not apply for one refrigerant, i.e., HFC-134a. Where HCFC production data can be taken from Article 7 reporting to UNEP, only certain production data for developed (Annex I) countries can be taken from reports to the UNFCCC, furthermore, the high GWP HFC production data have to be extrapolated from manufacturers’ data, derived from market data reports from consultancy companies etc., as well as from specific country (“HFC surveys”) information. An advantage is that production in (developed) non-Article 5 parties of some of the most used HFCs in the RACHP sector is reported to the UNFCCC, next to HFC emissions data, where the latter is a reporting requirement under the Kyoto Protocol. Further analysis then has to dive into further HFC chemical production data likely available from a very small number of chemical manufacturers in Article 5 parties, where both domestic production and production for export of equipment are parameters that need to be looked into in a detailed manner. The reliability of these data will be an important issue, of course. There is some similarity of the HCFC RACHP market in the past compared to the current HFC market, which is helpful in deriving trends, although growth parameters of the latter market make comparisons often challenging. This “chemical check” has also been one of the most important efforts during 2014-2017. 14.2 Some specific applications In section WG2.1 a list with the four different types of models have been given. Below one can find a number of examples that are of these various types. 1. One of the main purposes of the use of thermodynamic models is to investigate the characteristics and energy efficiency of (new) refrigerants or refrigerant blends compared to a base case. In 2017, one important contribution was published by McLinden (McLinden et al., 2017), who investigated a very large number of low GWP fluids, based on alkanes, olefines, alkynes (triple bound molecules), ethers etc. A thermodynamic model was used to investigate refrigerant capacity and COP (energy efficiency) characteristics compared to the currently used R-410A for specific temperature conditions. Although it was concluded that there may be some new fluids to be considered, these are expected to not lead to real thermodynamic efficiency improvements compared to the existing ones. Next to ammonia, propane- 272 2018 TOC Refrigeration, A/C and Heat Pumps Assessment ReportPDF Image | Heat Pumps Technical Options
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