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like fluids are the ones that are shown to have good efficiency characteristics (i.e., propane, propene, cyclopropane, isobutane, propyne). 2. In 2016, the (RTOC) inventory model has been used in the Decision XXVII/4 Task Force report, in order to further investigate the demand for high GWP HFCs and low GWP fluids for the RAC(HP) sector until 2050. In particular, the impact of the length of the conversion period of the manufacturing in certain refrigeration and AC sub-sectors was considered. 3. In August-September 2016, results of the (RTOC) inventory model were used to create a sort of database for the demand of all refrigeration and AC (RAC(HP)) subsectors for a business as usual case for 2015-2050; this was done separately for non-Article 5 and Article 5 parties. Next to refrigeration and AC, data estimates were generated (and these were also extrapolated into the future) for other HFC consuming sectors (foams, aerosols, fire protection). Using all the data, the 2016 HFC Montreal Protocol amendment proposals were evaluated and compared (TEAP, 2016b), in particular where it concerns their climate benefits compared to a BAU case (i.e., the reduction in Mt CO2-eq. compared to BAU). Good results were obtained which could be used in the discussions towards establishing the baselines and reduction schedules as currently laid down in the Kigali Amendment. It should be mentioned that the demand is, of course, directly linked to economic growth parameters as well as assumptions on equipment leakage during lifetime. 4. A similar inventory method has been used in the “Gapometer” modelling approach (EPEE, 2016). Rather than studying overall characteristic parameters (i.e., demand, banks, emissions) for non-Article 5 and Article 5 parties, and checking them against global HFC production data in a certain year, this method has been applied to separate Article 5 (and non-Article 5) parties. On the basis of the availability of specific HFC consumption (i.e., demand) data from HFC country surveys, applied to equipment numbers estimated, first estimates could be provided of the demand for specific HFCs for a number of years into the future. This is again related to the availability of data assumptions for economic growth and equipment parameters which are directly related to the refrigerant bank (equipment) and the demand for specific HFCs. It will be clear that, using this bottom-up method, refrigerant emissions can be calculated as well. 5. A slightly different inventory-emissions calculating method, with details published in 2016, gives the potential of savings in emissions towards the future. An overall analysis of the emission potentials of various sectors, including PFCs and HFC-23, was given in the publication by Purohit and Hoglund-Isaksson (2016). The authors also give first estimates for abatement costs. Where the study is based on an existing emissions calculating model, it is also clear that the results are dependent on multiple assumptions regarding physical parameters and geographical distribution of emissions, where underlying assumptions on the demand function etc. are needed. Results are therefore far more dependent on the quality of changing technology data as well as physical input data than on the above mentioned bottom- up types of modelling. 6. Modelling has also been done with a focus on total (climate relevant) emission reductions. They depart from assumptions or data on the number of pieces of equipment of certain types in the AC subsector in particular and from test data regarding energy efficiency improvements possible by changing or converting of refrigerants. Together with assumptions about the leakage of refrigerant during the operation and at end of life, plus the savings in CO2-eq. by a conversion to low GWP refrigerants, a total saving in CO2-eq. can be calculated. The emphasis here is not on the refrigerant charge amounts, but on refrigerant emissions and the CO2 emissions related to electricity use; this is then dependent on the hours of operation, capacity, equipment energy efficiency development, as well as on the power mix in separate countries, 2018 TOC Refrigeration, A/C and Heat Pumps Assessment Report 273PDF Image | Heat Pumps Technical Options
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