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etc. All information is subsequently translated into total CO2 emissions savings. The adoption and ratification of the Kigali Amendment will drive new studies on the impact of the use of lower GWP fluids. This will likely include a further emphasis on the impact of energy efficiency and the consequences for energy demand and related CO2 emissions (TEAP, 2018; Kuijpers et al., 2018). The quality of the rapidly evolving technical data will be fundamentally important, in order for the modelling to provide correct and timely conclusions on the mitigation offered by lower GWP refrigerant fluids, and for prioritising policy. 14.3 Results from TEAP Task Force reports The Decision XXIII/9 Task Force report (TEAP, 2012) was one of the first reports following a request to the TEAP to report on quantities and types of alternatives already and projected to be phased in as replacements for hydrochlorofluorocarbons, disaggregated by application, in both Article 5 and non-Article 5 parties. The data on refrigerant inventories (banks) in this report are again based on the Tier 2a methodology as defined in the Revised Guidelines for Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2006) and the bottom-up calculation methodology has been published in Annex 2 of the RTOC 2010 Assessment Report (RTOC, 2010). For the projections from 2010 to 2015, certain assumptions were made for near term refrigerant choices projected to be made by non-Article 5 parties. These assumptions were also thoroughly discussed with a number of experts from global manufacturing companies specialised in stationary air conditioning and commercial refrigeration. First, the data on refrigerant banks for commercial refrigeration and stationary air conditioning were derived for a number of large Non-Article 5 and Article 5 countries as well as several regions. These were then added up with totals assigned to one of two groups, the Article 5 and the non-Article 5 parties. For the year 2015, the data on HCFC replacements as in the approvals by the Multilateral Fund were also used. The refrigerant demand includes refrigerant charges for new equipment and refrigerant quantities used for servicing the installed bases of equipment. Imported refrigerant quantities were included in the demand; they were taken into account through annual equipment sales. The XXV/5 Task Force report (TEAP, 2014) made significant progress in defining a Business as Usual (BAU) and two mitigation scenarios, for both R/AC and foams. On the basis of bottom-up modelling, banks and demand were calculated up to the year 2030. The most important result from this study was the huge increase in the refrigerant demand over a period of 20 years following a BAU scenario, as well as the impact of certain mitigation scenarios on the refrigerant demand over the same period. The XXVI/9 Task Force report (TEAP, 2015) gave information again on the quantities and types of alternatives. The refrigeration and air-conditioning sectors were disaggregated into six sub- sectors in this report. However, due to the diversity of equipment that can be found within the same sector, a more disaggregated level is needed in order to calculate the emission factors and the activity data, such as equipment lifetime, average charge, and refrigerant type. For example, if one considers the commercial refrigeration sector, the emission factor varies widely between the different refrigerating systems that can be found within this sector: the emission factor for standalone equipment is in the range of 1% and, for large centralised systems, it can reach a value of up to 30%. The mass-balance approach shows limitations especially if the recharge frequency is not on annual basis as for MAC systems: what then enters for the servicing in a given year is not equivalent to what has been emitted in that year. A delay of 5 to 8 years could be observed for certain cases. In a mature market, where the average charge of MAC systems does not change and emission characteristics are also constant over time, this model can be used since principle vehicle characteristics are identical. 274 2018 TOC Refrigeration, A/C and Heat Pumps Assessment ReportPDF Image | Heat Pumps Technical Options
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