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applied in the scenarios used in the XXVI/9 Task Force report. Three, ever more detailed versions of the XXVII/4 Task Force report were published in the course of 2016 (TEAP, 2016). Several scenarios that apply to the R/AC sector were investigated for the XXVII/4 Task Force report. For the BAU scenario various regulations and actions as well as pending regulations applied by Parties were considered, with the F-gas regulation in the European Union (EU) and regulations in the United States (US), making certain HFCs unacceptable for certain sub-sectors by specific dates were applied. This implies that, in the business-as usual (BAU) calculation, certain high GWP substances in specific subsectors were replaced by low or lower GWP substances. Three mitigation scenarios were considered (a) a MIT-3 scenario: 2020 completion of conversion in non-Article 5 Parties of all RAC sub-sectors and the start of the manufacturing conversion of all RAC sub-sectors in 2020 in Article 5 Parties (2020-2050) (see Figure 14-3), (b) a MIT-4 scenario: the same as the MIT-3 scenario, but with the assumption of the year 2025 for the start of the manufacturing conversion for stationary AC in Article 5 Parties (2020-2050), and (c) a MIT-5 scenario: the same as the MIT-3 scenario, but with the assumption of a 2025 completion of conversion in non-Article 5 Parties of all RAC sub-sectors and the start of the manufacturing conversion of all RAC sub-sectors in 2025 in Article 5 Parties (2020-2050). It was mentioned that, for Article 5 Parties, manufacturing conversion projects would need preparation to be funded; it would also take a certain period of time before conversion projects would have been approved by a funding authority, so that they can be initiated. Finally, experience with CFCs and HCFCs had shown that, the slower the conversion of manufacturing, the longer the servicing tail will be, i.e., the longer servicing of equipment will be required. In order to give an impression (taken from the XXVII/4 Task Force report), the growth rates apply as given in Table 14-4 below. The bank of refrigerants is substantially larger (10-20 times) than the annual refrigerant demand. In fact, the bank as calculated determines the amount of emissions, dependent on leakage assumptions during operation. The total demand is the sum of the amount used for new manufacturing and for re-charging to balance the refrigerant that is lost via all types of emissions. Banks of refrigerants could be given for regions and/or for certain parties (countries) as used in the model, but the amounts that would then be presented would not contribute to a better understanding of the demand, which is the essential parameter in this chapter that deals with refrigerant demand scenarios. As already mentioned in the Decision XXVI/9 TF Report and the September 2015 Update Report (TEAP, 2015; TEAP, 2015a), estimates should be cross-checked with reported HFC consumption and production data, specified per refrigerant. For the most recent cross-check, information can be found below. The XXVII/4 Task Force report also estimated global production quantities for HFC-152a, HFC- 227ea, HFC-245fa and HFC-365mfc at around 140 ktonnes, of which HFC-152a production was estimated in the order of 60 ktonnes (where the total was translated into 160-170 Mt CO2-eq. in climate terms). However, these data are of virtually no importance for the RACHP sector. In the XXVII/4 Task Force report, the total HFC production for the year 2015 was estimated at about 1220 Mt CO2-eq. While the production data for the four main HFCs are reasonably reliable global estimates, they have been used to check (and calibrate) the RACHP demand data determined via the bottom-up method used; details are given in the section below. For the RACHP sector as a whole, the total bottom-up demand that has been calculated for the year 2015 for non-Article 5 Parties (200.5 ktonnes) and Article 5 Parties (272.9 ktonnes) equals 473.4 ktonnes. This relates to the four main HFCs (also given in Table 14-3). It would imply that about 50-55 ktonnes of the four main HFCs 2018 TOC Refrigeration, A/C and Heat Pumps Assessment Report 277PDF Image | Heat Pumps Technical Options
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