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Uncertainties in the banks were estimated at 12.5-22.5%, uncertainties in emissions 12.8-37%, specific numbers are assumed to be dependent on the sub-sector. For the total RAC sector, the uncertainty range in the demand calculated was estimated from -10 up to +30%. Estimates should be cross-checked with reported HFC consumption and production data, specified per refrigerant (or refrigerant blend). However, for non-Article 5 Parties, the annual emissions and demand reporting via UNFCCC is not very reliable (since certain chemicals are reported as part of a group, in t CO2-eq., and for Article 5 Parties, data are not available on an annual basis, if at all. This XXVI/9 Task Force report is the first one to give estimates for HFC production of the four main HFCs (based on the 2012 UNFCCC data and a large number of estimates for the production in Article 5 Parties, i.e., mainly China). These HFCs are the ones used in the RACHP sector. It showed a total production of about 475 ktonnes as a forecast for the year 2015 for the four main HFCs (about 910 Mt CO2-eq., if calculated in climate terms). The global production capacity for these HFCs was estimated much higher, at a level of about 750 ktonnes. It needs to be emphasised that the global HFC production (for the four main HFCs) determined in this way was estimated to have a ± 10% uncertainty for the separate HFC chemicals. These production data were assumed to be reasonably reliable global estimates (at the time of publication of the report) and they could be used in order to check the demand (consumption) data determined via the bottom-up method used. For clarity, it applied to the following HFCs (as used in the RACHP sector): HFC-32, -125, -134a and -143a. Table 14-3: Estimates for global HFC production (for HFC-32, -125, -134a and -143a) (from the XXVI/9 TF report, Table 5-4) Gg (ktonnes) for HFCs (per year) (Montzka, 2015) Emissions year 2012 UNFCCC based estimate for non-A5 prod. (2012) Estimate for non-A5 production (for 2015) Estimate from various sources A5 production (for 2015) Estimate global production year 2015 (*) HFC-32 HFC-125 HFC-134a HFC-143a 16 (21**) 41 173 21 ≈ 22 23 71 94 < 30 31.5 98.5 130 < 100 97 126 223 <10 11 17 28 Note: (*) Global production is equal to non-Article 5 plus Article 5 country (China, minor other) production Note: (**) Estimate from Rigby (2013) The production amount of HFC-32 was assumed to be growing rapidly, mainly due to production in Article 5 Parties. The same would apply to HFC-125. In 2015, HFC-143a production was assumed to be 28 ktonnes. The HFC-134a amount produced was thought to be in the order of 220-230 ktonnes (223 ktonnes given in the table above); this may have been slightly underestimated, amounts could have been in the order of 240-250 ktonnes in the period 2015- 2017, for all applications (including outside RAC). The bottom-up method gave a global result of about 28 ktonnes for HFC-143a, which seems to be consistent. Values for HFC-134a estimated in the RACHP sector were in the order of 170-180 ktonnes, which would be consistent with total estimates for RACHP and other (non RACHP) HFC-134a uses (as in the table above). The production quantity of HFC-32 and HFC-125 together can be calculated as about 225 ktonnes in 2015 from the table above. The bottom up method calculates 250-260 ktonnes for the year 2015, which seems to be too high, maybe due to the use of particular assumptions for the use of R-410A for stationary AC in the bottom-up method, or production might also have been slightly underestimated. In the Decision XXVII/4 Task Force report one can find the request by parties to expand the demand scenarios to (the period 1990-) 2050, twenty years after 2030, which was the last year 276 2018 TOC Refrigeration, A/C and Heat Pumps Assessment ReportPDF Image | Heat Pumps Technical Options
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