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(mainly HFC-134a) are used in sectors other than RAC, globally; these other sectors would mainly be foams, medical and technical aerosols. It was stated that one needs to take into account that both the production estimates and the bottom up calculated R/AC demand have >10% uncertainties for the separate chemicals and sub-sectors. Table 14-4: Growth rates for high-GWP HFC demands in the various RAC sub-sectors (manufacturing and total) during the periods 2010-2020, 2020-2030 and 2030-2050 (the total growth rate is likely different from the manufacturing growth rate, due to the impact of the servicing sector, considering equipment manufactured earlier)(XXVII/4 Task Force report, Table 6-1) Non-Article 5 Parties Sub-sector Domestic refrigeration Commercial refrigeration Industrial refrigeration Transport refrigeration Stationary AC Mobile AC Article 5 Parties Sub-sector Domestic refrigeration Commercial refrigeration Industrial refrigeration Transport refrigeration Stationary AC Mobile AC Manufact. Total Manufact. Total Manufact. Total Manufact. Total Manufact. Total Manufact. Total Manufact. Total Manufact. Total Manufact. Total Manufact. Total Manufact. Total Manufact. Total 2010-2020 -6.0% -6.0% -10.5% -2.0% -2.1% 0% -9.5% -1.3% 5.8% 8.5% -12.5% -3.6% 2010-2020 5.8% 4.8% 12.9% 16.5% 8.8% 6.1% 5.8% 9.5% 15.8% 17.7% 5.0% 6.4% 2020-2030 2030-2050 -1.5% 3% -1.5% 3% 0.1% 3% -5.5% 2.1% -1.8% 3% -1.2% 1.8% -4% 3% -0.2% 0.9% 3% 3% 2.8% 2.7% 3.3% 3% -5.5% 1.9% 2020-2030 2030-2050 5.8% 4.5% 5.8% 4.5% 8.6% 4.5% 9.6% 5.1% 6.8% 3.7% 6.1% 4.2% 4.5% 4.5% 5.7% 4.4% 6.0% 1.5% 8.3% 3.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% On the conversion period, the XXVII/4 Task Force report shows a number of interesting figures, see Figure 14-1 below. A twelve-year conversion period does not yield a decrease in total demand until after 4-5 years after the start of the conversion in the year 2020. The build-up of the servicing demand (from the manufacturing that has not yet been converted) causes this profile with an increasing demand curve (during 2020-2025). Not until ten years after the start of the conversion in 2020, a demand reduction of 20-25% can be observed in this case. In the year 2026, the demand for the 12 years conversion period is almost twice as high as for the six years conversion period, which underscores that a rapid conversion will be very important. It will be clear that there is a direct relationship of the shape of the curves to the length of the conversion period. There are also cost implications. A six-year conversion period would imply twice the 278 2018 TOC Refrigeration, A/C and Heat Pumps Assessment ReportPDF Image | Heat Pumps Technical Options
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