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costs in the first six years after 2020 (2021-2026), compared to the 12 years conversion period, where the same amount will be spread over 12 years. A5 MIT3 demand HFC + GWP300 (Mt CO2) 500 0 1,000 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 12 years 10 years Figure 14-1: Article 5 MIT-3 demand scenario for all R/AC sectors for new manufacturing conversion periods of 6-8-10-12 years in Mt CO2-eq. (Figure 6-17, XXVII/4 Task Force report) Longer periods than 12 years were also considered, where this leads to very long delays in the decrease of the refrigerant demand, see Figure 14-2 below. 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Conversion period impact on total demand 2018 2022 BAU 2026 2030 2034 12 years Year 2038 2042 18 years 2046 2050 6 years Figure 14-2: Article 5 MIT-3 total demand scenarios for 6, 12 and 18 years manufacturing conversion periods (compare also Figure 6-14 and 6-17 for MIT-3, 6 years and 6-8-10-12 years conversion periods) (Figure 6-18, XXVII/4 Task Force report) Whereas the 6 and 12 years conversion periods result in a demand decrease after 2020, the 18 years conversion period yields an almost 10% increase in demand first, until the year 2030, then starts to decrease and reaches the 2020 demand level again in the year 2037. This is due to the build-up of servicing demand from HFC products still being manufactured, while there is economic growth for the various R/AC sub-sectors. The 6 years conversion has no high GWP servicing demand after 2032-2034, the 12 years conversion has high GWP HFC servicing demand until 2042-2044, for the 18 years conversion period there is still some high GWP servicing demand until around 2050. Compared to the total refrigerant demand for the period 2020-2050 for a 6 years conversion period (in climate terms), the demand increase by 70% in case of a 18 years conversion period. 2018 TOC Refrigeration, A/C and Heat Pumps Assessment Report 279 Demand (Mt CO2-eq)PDF Image | Heat Pumps Technical Options
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