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leakage was based on the 20-year impact rather than the 100-year impact as it is in this time scale that climate change needs to be addressed. Barriers, Challenges and Opportunities While ASHPs have established healthy markets in some regions of the United States, most regions have very low market penetration. For example, heat pumps are used in 20% of homes in the South Census Region, which is double the nationwide percentage (EIA 2017). Several key market barriers exist today that have impeded the mass adoption of ASHPs in all regions and maturation of the technology for heating. While barriers could vary by climate or market, a number of barriers are common to all. Market Barriers Recent strategy and market assessment work provides excellent descriptions of the primary market barriers to advancement of air source heat pumps (NYSERDA 2017; Hopkins 2017; Lee 2018; Conzemius 2016). The primary market barriers are as follows: Limited awareness of the technology (consumer and installer) Limited confidence in the technology (consumer and installer) High initial installed cost Performance challenges, especially at low ambient temperature Policymaker support, especially around fuel-switching Potential new winter peaks Current performance metrics do not adequately differentiate systems optimized for different climates The primary challenge iASHPs face is reaching product economies of scale and technology maturity, before the product is sufficiently mature, and production has increased sufficiently to drive out initial non-recurring product and production capacity costs. This classic “chicken and egg” problem is best overcome by pursuing all near term cost effective opportunities where minimal initial investment can be used to leverage larger economies of scale. Near Term Market Opportunities Near term opportunities increase market scale and product maturity include: Ratepayer funded energy efficiency programs GHG reduction policies and programs New requirements on HVAC refrigerants Leveraged niche market opportunities Availability of affordable communication technologies to enable dynamic operation Growing value stream for more flexible loads Zoneability of many ASHP technologies to improve comfort and control ©2018 ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings 1-9PDF Image | Lync Diagram
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