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Figure 2 – global warming impact comparison of 5 different heat sources Source: Author’s calculations using data from many sources; key assumptions discussed in the text. Figure 2 shows that total GHG emissions of current ASHPs and gas furnaces are very similar, with 220 and 216 lbs CO2/MMBtu respectively. Future Gas ASHP and iASHP have much lower total equivalent GHG emissions, 113 and 67 lbs CO2/MMBtu respectively. Thus the projected source based GHG of the future state iASHP is 70% less than current total emissions from either current gas furnace or ASHP space heating6. The assumed seasonal coefficient of performance (sCOP) for the gas ASHP is 1.5 which is based on current lab-tested (but not yet commercially available) technology. The assumed iASHP sCOP is 3.0 which is based on field validated performance for currently available inverter-driven cold-climate mini-split heat pumps (NEEP 2017). The assumed natural gas leakage rates are based on EPA estimates of 1.4%. The current source of electricity is natural gas burned in combined cycle gas turbine with a fuel rate of 7,652 Btuh/kWh and a transmission loss of 6% with a 20% renewable energy contribution resulting in GHG emissions of 0.72 lbs of CO2 per kWh. The future source of electricity produces 0.31lbs of CO2 per kWh (equivalent to Gas CCT with a 65% RE contribution). The current ASHP refrigerant is R410a with a 20-year global warming potential (GWP) of 4340 and the future iASHP assumes the use of a natural refrigerant with an assumed GWP of 4. All cases assume the refrigerant leaks out once every seven years. The natural gas leakage is divided by extraction, transmission and distribution values depending on where it was burned. The effective global warming impact of refrigerant and natural gas 6 Does not include GHG emissions of manufacturing, transport, sales and installation of the heating system itself. 1-8 ©2018 ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in BuildingsPDF Image | Lync Diagram
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