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Case Study: New York State The 2030 target for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions in New York State is 40% below 1990 levels. In order to reach this goal, it is essential to achieve substantial reductions in the use of fossil fuels in the residential heating sector. Space heating is the largest single residential energy end-use in New York State, accounting for 56% of the residential energy consumption [10]. Space conditioning and water heating account for more CO2 emissions than the entire electricity sector of New York State combined (including electricity imports). The residential sector itself is responsible for over 60% of the emissions associated with space conditioning and water heating and the vast majority of those emissions come from residential space heating [11]. Using heat pumps to displace fossil fuel heating systems is the most promising path towards reducing GHG emissions in the residential heating sector (in addition to the weatherization of homes). Electrification also makes space heating renewable-grid ready, meaning that $8,300 26 $1,295 $4,000 100 $2,392 emissions reductions will continue to improve automatically as the proportion of renewables increases towards New York State’s target of 50% renewables by 2030. Table 1 summarizes the estimated installation costs, annual energy use, annual energy costs, cumulative CO2 emissions over 15 years, and payback times for cold-climate ASHPs and GSHPs compared to natural gas and oil heating systems. Natural gas and heating oil are by far the most common heating fuels in New York State, accounting for 57% and 29% of all residential heating systems respectively [10]. The residential buildings considered here are single unit structures with 1,500 to 2,000 square feet of heating area, assuming the retrofit takes place at a time when the oil or natural gas furnace needs replacement or, equivalently, during new construction. These estimates do not include discount rates or projections of future fuel costs due to the high 19.5 3.9 23.2 109.7 - - Installation cost2 ($) Annual energy use3 (MMBtu) Annual energy cost4 ($) CO2 emissions, 15 years5 (metric tons) Payback time vs Oil (years) Payback time vs NG (years) ASHP $24,000 20 $996 15.0 14.3 41.3 GSHP Oil Natural Gas $4,000 100 $1,481 Table 1: Costs, CO2 emissions and payback times for different heating options in New York State 2 Source: IEER [11] 3 Assuming an average annual thermal requirement of 90 MMBtu for Upstate New York [11,12], 90% efficiency for oil and gas heating systems, and average COP values of 3.5 and 4.5 for air-source and ground-source heat pumps respectively. MMBtu means million Btu. 1 kWh (electrical) = 3,412 Btu. 4 Energy costs per MMBtu in New York State: electricity = $49.82 [11]; natural gas = $14.81, heating oil = $23.92 (NYSERDA). Natural gas and heating oil prices are averaged over 10 years to account for high price volatility. 5 CO2 emissions coefficients (kg CO2/MMBtu) for fossil fuels: natural gas = 53.07, oil = 73.16 (EIA). The average CO2 emissions of electricity in New York State for the period 2015 – 2030 are estimated to be 0.171 kg CO2/kWh [11] 79.6 www.psehealthyenergy.org 4 - - TECHNOLOGY BRIEF | CLEAN ENERGYPDF Image | Lync heat pump diagram
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