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Figure 3: Estimated CO2 emissions reduction and payback times for ASHPs and GSHPs. uncertainty in natural gas and oil prices. The societal benefits of reducing carbon emissions, the health benefits of reducing air pollution, and the climate impacts of upstream methane emissions associated with natural gas production and distribution are also not considered in this simple analysis. Table 1 and Fig. 3 above suggest that switching from fossil fuel heating to either an ASHP or a GSHP system can result in significant CO2 emissions reduction over 15 years. The two heat pump options have a comparable emissions reduction potential with a slight advantage for GSHPs. The numbers also suggest that it is very cost-effective to replace an oil furnace with a heat pump system, although the break-even times are quite different for the two heat pump options: ~ 4 years for an ASHP and slightly over 14 years for a GSHP. The lower installation cost of the former leads to significantly higher net benefits over 15 years. When it comes to replacing natural gas heating systems, however, the economics are quite different — the simple payback times become 23 and 41 years respectively for the two heat pump options. With a life span of 15 to 20 years, an ASHP can nearly break even and a GSHP with a life span of 25 to 30 years would be unable to do so. It is important to keep in mind that these estimates can vary substantially depending on the geographic location, the heat pump size, and, most importantly, the fuel and electricity prices. In general, the current low prices of natural gas compared to electricity coupled with the greater upfront costs make ASHPs marginally economical and GSHPs uneconomical as a natural gas heating replacement unless the co-benefits of CO2 emissions and air pollution reduction are taken into account. An additional benefit of heat pumps is that they can serve as a hedge for volatile fossil fuel prices due to their lower energy consumption and the relatively stable cost of electricity. We note that the New York City area is expected to be slightly less cost-effective for heat pump adoption compared to Upstate New York due to the lower heating requirements for apartment buildings, the lower cost of natural gas and heating oil, the higher equipment and labor costs, and the higher electricity prices [13]. These higher costs are somewhat offset by the milder climate in the New York City area, which improves the seasonal efficiency of air- source heat pumps. The estimates above suggest that a switch from fossil fuel space heating to efficient electrical heat pump systems — specifically ASHPs — should be encouraged in New York and the state should prioritize policies to overcome the various market barriers for heat pump adoption (high upfront costs, split incentives, cold climate concerns, lack of information). In particular, the state should facilitate the rapid retrofitting of all oil-heated homes with efficient electrical systems. In areas without natural gas infrastructure, New York State residents can affordably switch directly to efficient heat pump systems. In areas with natural gas infrastructure, ASHPs may still be the most beneficial option for new buildings, especially when CO2 emissions, air pollution, and the volatility of fossil fuel prices are taken into account. Meeting the goal of www.psehealthyenergy.org 5 TECHNOLOGY BRIEF | CLEAN ENERGYPDF Image | Lync heat pump diagram
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