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Chapter 2. Replacing Petroleum with Sustainable Energy Carriers 33 [68, 104, 105]. At an aggressive but reasonable rate of vehicle adoption and a moderate rate of emissions reduction in the electricity sector, PHEVs could reduce U.S. GHG emissions by more than one Pacala-Socolow ―stabilization wedge‖ [26, 108]. Together with the moderate grid decarbonization, nearly 4 wedges may be accounted for by 2050, or more than half of the total emissions reductions needed for stabilization at 2010 levels. In the long term, as electricity sources transition to a de-carbonized portfolio and liquid hydrocarbons are made carbon- neutral, emissions are further reduced. PHEVs also inherit the benefits of full electric vehicles, as discussed earlier: they can also cooperate with the electric grid, and as time goes by, the vehicle becomes greener as the grid that feeds it becomes greener. The benefits of reducing liquid fuel demand with minimal battery size in PHEVs might extend to the economics of the vehicle. The capital cost of the battery and electric motor is many times higher than that of the IC engine. Liquid fuel consumption, which costs more than electricity, is simultaneously minimized. For a PHEV-20, the battery capital cost is about 5% of the full-range electric vehicle battery described above, and the operating cost is about 75% of a conventional fully gasoline-powered vehicle [26]. As batteries improve and become cheaper, they can gradually replace more of the propulsion energy, enabling affordable longer-range PHEVs that approach fully all-electric vehicles. If the liquid fuel need is low enough, even biomass may be able to supply it sustainably. PHEVs should be competitive if battery costs come down by a factor of 2 or if gasoline costs double [109]. This appears to be within reach based on the cost reductions that came with mass production of consumer batteries, as discussed earlier. The fraction of vehicle propulsion supplied by electricity will most likely grow in the future as either electric vehicles or PHEVs are adopted. The remaining transportation energy will likely still be supplied by hydrocarbons, which calls for means to produce them sustainably. At present, biomass-based fuels do not seem to be an option that can scale up sustainably. Both fossil derived hydrocarbons and hydrocarbons produced from renewable or nuclear energy by recycling CO2 could be CO2-neutral and meet the large-scale demand. The CO2-recycled hydrocarbons would be the long term sustainable solution since fossil fuel supplies are limited, CO2 sequestration sites may be limited before fossil fuel supplies run out, and due to other environmental concerns besides CO2. The two energy carrier scenarios in which both sustainable hydrocarbons and electricity power PHEVs are depicted in Figure 2-3. A long-term sustainable energy timeline for transportation in which electric propulsion and sustainable hydrocarbons scale up to meet total transportation energy by 2050 is illustrated in Figure 2-4.PDF Image | Electrolysis of CO2 and H2O
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