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The Future of Hydrogen Table of contents Figure 47. Figure 48. Figure 49. Figure 50. Figure 51. Figure 52. Figure 53. Figure 54. Figure 55. Figure 56. Figure 57. Figure 58. Figure 59. Figure 60. Figure 61. Figure 62. Figure 63. Figure 64. Figure 65. Figure 66. Figure 67. Figure 68. Comparison of cleaner routes for steel production in the long term ................................................... 116 Demand for heat in industry under current trends ..............................................................................117 Economics and future potential in the context of a USD 100/tCO2 carbon price ................................. 118 Fuel cell electric cars in circulation, 2017–18 ...................................................................................... 126 Hydrogen refuelling stations and utilisation, 2018 ............................................................................. 128 Road vehicle fleet growth to 2030 under current trends..................................................................... 130 Benchmarking hydrogen refuelling station capital costs as a function of capacity ...............................133 Total cost of car ownership by powertrain, range and fuel ..................................................................135 Break-even fuel cell cost to be competitive with BEV in the long term ............................................... 136 Current and future total cost of ownership of fuel/powertrain alternatives in long-haul trucks ............137 Current and future total cost of ownership of fuel/powertrain alternatives in a bulk carrier ship ......... 141 Break-even carbon price for ammonia to be competitive with fossil fuels .......................................... 142 Spread of energy prices, performance and operational costs for gas and electric heating equipment in IEA countries, 2017 ............................................................................................................................147 Potential hydrogen demand for heating in buildings and spread of competitive energy prices in selected markets, 2030 ..................................................................................................................... 148 Development of global stationary fuel cell capacity, 2007–18 .............................................................153 Break even for hydrogen CCGT against other flexible power generation options ................................157 Levelised electricity generation costs for load balancing from natural gas and hydrogen ................... 158 Levelised costs of storage as a function of discharge duration ........................................................... 159 Today’s fuel prices in hydrogen-equivalent terms on an energy basis (left) and accounting for the relative efficiencies to provide the same service (right).......................................................................170 Global distribution of existing refining, steelmaking and chemical cracking plants..............................178 Cost and emissions intensity of blending hydrogen into the gas network at different blend shares .... 183 Routes for hydrogen trading with long-term costs compared to domestic production. ...................... 189 List of boxes Box 1. Box 2. Box 3. Box 4. Box 5. Box 6. Box 7. Box 8. Box 9. Box 10. Box 11. Box 12. Box 13. Box 14. Box 15. Box 16. Box 17. Box 18. Box 19. Box 20. Previous waves of enthusiasm for hydrogen ....................................................................................... 19 How this report manages uncertainties about present and future costs and potentials ........................ 30 Emerging technologies to produce hydrogen ...................................................................................... 41 Thermal routes for hydrogen production – a case for nuclear? ............................................................. 46 CO2 sources for synthetic hydrocarbons .............................................................................................. 58 Production of hydrogen and ammonia from solar and wind in China ...................................................62 Advantages and disadvantages of ammonia and LOHCs ..................................................................... 75 Can California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard support low-carbon hydrogen? ......................................... 98 Existing and planned low-carbon ammonia and methanol production ............................................... 103 Projects for low-emissions steel production .......................................................................................111 General challenges facing the use of hydrogen for heat in industry.................................................... 119 Public and private initiatives for hydrogen in road transport .............................................................. 129 Policy opportunities for promoting the use of hydrogen in road transport ......................................... 134 The ENE-FARM programme in Japan ................................................................................................ 145 Fuel cell technologies for stationary power applications .................................................................... 152 Using fuel cells to provide back-up power and access to electricity .................................................... 154 Putting low-cost energy resources to higher-value uses .....................................................................173 Focus on the North Sea region .......................................................................................................... 179 Realising existing government targets would drive down costs by 2030............................................. 186 Key ongoing hydrogen projects related to hydrogen trade in Asia Pacific .......................................... 191 List of tables Table 1. Table 2. Table 3. Table 4. Table 5. Table 6. Table 7. Table 8. Selected hydrogen-related government announcements since early 2018........................................... 21 Physical properties of hydrogen .......................................................................................................... 35 Techno-economic characteristics of different electrolyser technologies .............................................. 44 Summary of hydrogen use in industrial applications and future potential ............................................90 Potential uses of hydrogen and derived products for transport applications ...................................... 125 Potential routes to use hydrogen for buildings heat supply................................................................ 144 The global buildings stock and share of gas in heat production in 2017 .............................................. 146 2030 natural gas demand for heat in buildings and indicative theoretical hydrogen demand in ............... selected regions................................................................................................................................ 149 PAGE | 10 IEA. 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