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The Future of Hydrogen Table of contents List of figures Figure 1. Figure 2. Figure 3. Figure 4. Figure 5. Figure 6. Figure 7. Figure 8. Figure 9. Figure 10. Figure 11. Figure 12. Figure 13. Figure 14. Figure 15. Figure 16. Figure 17. Figure 18. Figure 19. Figure 20. Figure 21. Figure 22. Figure 23. Figure 24. Figure 25. Figure 26. Figure 27. Figure 28. Figure 29. Figure 30. Figure 31. Figure 32. Figure 33. Figure 34. Figure 35. Figure 36. Figure 37. Figure 38. Figure 39. Figure 40. Figure 41. Figure 42. Figure 43. Figure 44. Figure 45. Figure 46. Global annual demand for hydrogen since 1975................................................................................... 18 Policies directly supporting hydrogen deployment by target application ............................................. 20 Government RD&D budgets for hydrogen and fuel cells ...................................................................... 20 Capacity of new projects for hydrogen production for energy and climate purposes, by technology and start date .....................................................................................................................................26 A guide to the hydrogen energy value chain, from supply to end use ................................................... 29 Today’s hydrogen value chains............................................................................................................ 32 Potential pathways for producing hydrogen and hydrogen-based products......................................... 39 Production process of hydrogen from gas with CCUS .......................................................................... 40 Hydrogen production costs using natural gas in different regions, 2018 ............................................... 42 Development of electrolyser capacity additions for energy purposes and their average unit size, 1990–2019 .......................................................................................................................................... 45 Expected reduction in electrolyser CAPEX from the use of multi-stack systems................................... 47 Future levelised cost of hydrogen production by operating hour for different electrolyser investment costs (left) and electricity costs (right) ................................................................................................. 47 Hydrogen costs from electrolysis using grid electricity ........................................................................48 Hydrogen costs from hybrid solar PV and onshore wind systems in the long term ...............................49 Hydrogen production costs in China today .......................................................................................... 51 Hydrogen production costs for different technology options, 2030...................................................... 52 CO2 intensity of hydrogen production ................................................................................................. 53 Comparison of hydrogen production costs from electricity and natural gas with CCUS in the near term54 Hydrogen production costs in different parts of the world ................................................................... 55 Outputs and losses of different pathways for hydrogen-based fuels and feedstocks from electrolytic hydrogen ............................................................................................................................................ 56 Number of new projects for making various hydrogen-based fuels and feedstocks from electrolytic hydrogen ............................................................................................................................................ 57 Indicative production costs of electricity-based pathways in the near and long term ...........................60 Synthetic diesel and methane production costs and CO2 price penalty needed for competitiveness with fossil diesel and natural gas in the long term................................................................................62 Transmission, distribution and storage elements of hydrogen value chains .........................................68 Tolerance of selected existing elements of the natural gas network to hydrogen blend shares by volume ............................................................................................................................................... 72 Current limits on hydrogen blending in natural gas networks .............................................................. 73 Cost of hydrogen storage and transmission by pipeline and ship, and cost of hydrogen liquefaction and conversion ................................................................................................................................... 78 Cost of hydrogen distribution to a large centralised facility and cost of reconversion to gaseous hydrogen ............................................................................................................................................80 Full cost of hydrogen delivery to the industrial sector by pipeline or by ship in 2030 for different transmission distances ........................................................................................................................ 81 Cost of delivering hydrogen or ammonia produced via electrolysis from Australia to an industrial customer in Japan in 2030...................................................................................................................82 Comparison of delivered hydrogen costs for domestically produced and imported hydrogen for selected trade routes in 2030 .............................................................................................................. 83 Cost of electrolytic hydrogen imports from North Africa supplied to a hydrogen refuelling station in Europe in 2030 ....................................................................................................................................84 Allowed sulphur content in oil products...............................................................................................92 Sources of hydrogen supply for refineries in selected regions, 2018 ..................................................... 93 Hydrogen production costs compared to refining margins, 2018 .........................................................94 Future hydrogen demand in oil refining under two different pathways ................................................ 95 Hydrogen production costs from natural gas with and without CCUS by region under different carbon prices, 2030 ........................................................................................................................................ 97 Hydrogen demand for ammonia and methanol production in 2018 ................................................... 100 Hydrogen demand for primary chemical production for existing applications under current trends.... 102 The implications of cleaner process routes for methanol and ammonia production ........................... 105 Costs and CO2 intensities for greenfield ammonia and methanol production in 2018 ......................... 106 Variation of ammonia and methanol production costs with fuel price in the long-term .......................107 Hydrogen consumption and production in the iron and steel sector today ......................................... 109 Theoretical potential for dedicated hydrogen demand for primary steel production .......................... 110 Energy implications of fulfilling hydrogen demand via the DRI-EAF route.......................................... 114 Estimated costs of steel for selected greenfield production routes in 2018..........................................115 PAGE | 9 IEA. 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