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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 1: Introduction Box 1. Previous waves of enthusiasm for hydrogen Hydrogen has seen several waves of interest in recent history, none of which fully translated into rising, sustainable investment. A brief summary of these earlier periods indicates that this may have been because hydrogen scale-up was highly dependent on high and rising prices for oil and gas, and was focused to a considerable extent on a single end-use sector: transport. Interest in hydrogen rose during the 1970s with oil price shocks, petroleum shortages and attention to air pollution and acid rain. Projections indicated that, in the long term, hydrogen produced from coal or nuclear electricity could have an important role to play in providing energy, particularly for transport. The International Journal of Hydrogen Energy was launched in 1976, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology Collaboration Programme was established in 1977. Interest in the potential of hydrogen waned as oil and gas resources proved plentiful, oil prices moderated, nuclear power faced increasing public resistance, and other control measures addressed air pollution problems. In the 1990s concern about climate change spurred more studies on hydrogen, with a particular focus on carbon capture and storage (CCS), renewable energy and transport. In 1993 Japan announced funding of JPY 4.5 billion for the first four years of its long-term WE- NET programme for international hydrogen trade based on renewable energy. The European Commission and the Government of Quebec allocated around CAD 33 million to explore together a range of hydrogen storage and use cases, including international hydrogen shipments. Many major automakers unveiled hydrogen cars at motor shows in the 1990s on the back of rapid progress in fuel cell technology. But oil prices remained low through the second half of the decade, stifling support that could have moved these projects closer to the mainstream. By the early 2000s concern about climate change had begun to translate into renewed policy action aimed at the transport sector, and concerns about peak oil resurfaced. Although nuclear was not universally favoured, hopes for a new generation of cheaper nuclear plants and the thermal splitting of water were central to many low estimates of hydrogen costs. The United States convened the International Partnership for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells in the Economy (IPHE) in 2003. Wider deployment of hydrogen-powered vehicles was frustrated in part by the “chicken and egg” problem of needing to develop infrastructure and vehicles in tandem. By 2010, expectations for hydrogen dipped with the retreat of the peak oil narrative, uncertainty about the strength of climate policy developments and progress with battery electric vehicles, which have less expensive initial infrastructure needs than hydrogen vehicles. Today’s coalition of voices in favour of hydrogen includes renewable electricity suppliers, industrial gas producers, electricity and gas utilities, automakers, oil and gas companies, major engineering firms and the governments of most of the world’s largest economies. It also includes those who use, or could use, hydrogen as a feedstock for industrial production, not just energy. In 2017 the Hydrogen Council was formed to bring together relevant private-sector players. Its steering group now has 33 members at CEO and chairperson level and 21 supporting members. The possibility that these influential stakeholders will work together to ensure that projects are implemented and markets are developed is an important indication that hydrogen may now command the kind of committed cross-sectoral support it needs for the future. PAGE | 19 IEA. All rights reserved.PDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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