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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 1: Introduction can be attractive where electricity demand is modest and the expansion of the electricity grid is not expected in the near term, for example in some parts of Africa. In India hundreds of fuel cells are used to ensure uninterruptible power for telecom towers. Today these systems run largely on imported fossil-based methanol. 3) Hydrogen can help ensure the current rapid growth of renewable electricity continues Declining renewables costs are one of the forces driving hydrogen’s potential upwards. As solar and wind costs become cheaper, their expected share of the future primary energy mix rise. At high proportions of solar and wind power, the variability of their output poses a challenge. A number of countries and regions now have ambitious targets for the share of electricity coming from low-carbon sources, with South Australia aiming for 100% by 2025, Fukushima Prefecture by 2040, Sweden by 2040, California by 2045 and Denmark by 2050. Others have ambitious emissions reduction targets that point in the same direction. The EU objective of reducing emissions by 80–95% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels, for example, implies almost complete decarbonisation of power generation and high levels of variable renewables. Because hydrogen can be stored or used in a variety of sectors, converting electricity to hydrogen can help with the matching of variable energy supply and demand, both temporally and geographically, alongside alternatives such as pumped-storage hydropower, batteries and grid upgrades. If renewable power generation becomes sufficiently cheap and widespread, it can be used not only to provide low-carbon electricity, but also to create low-carbon hydrogen that can displace fossil fuels in transport, heating and industrial raw materials, and indeed almost any application not susceptible to electrification. All this makes hydrogen one of a suite of technologies that work well together to support the growth of low-carbon energy at the level of the overall energy system. The question of cost is of course very important in this context. The cost of electricity is the single most significant factor in the cost of electrolytic hydrogen production, and recent sharp declines in solar and wind power costs have therefore reduced the real and expected prices of renewable hydrogen. For example, utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) capital costs are 75% lower than in 2010, and electricity from onshore wind is around one quarter cheaper today than it was ten years ago. This has led more potential end users to look closely at whether renewable hydrogen is becoming a competitive way to meet their needs and reduce their environmental impact. Recent investments include a project to use electrolysers for the generation of low-carbon hydrogen to displace a share of fossil fuel-based hydrogen in oil refining and fertiliser production. 4) Hydrogen can benefit from positive experiences of developing clean energy technologies Several clean energy technologies have become major new industries since the beginning of this century. While deployment of solar PV and wind turbines was initially backed by direct government support systems and policies, investment in them now stands at USD 124 billion per year, mostly from private capital (IEA, 2019). Electric vehicles are currently following a similar path from government-supported research and pilot projects to a self-sustaining industry. This experience provides today’s investors with increased confidence that governments could have the will and capacity to help develop hydrogen, a potentially clean energy technology that largely relies on government-funded projects today, in a similar way and on a similar scale. PAGE | 25 IEA. All rights reserved.PDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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