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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 3: Storage, transmission and distribution of hydrogen Figure 30. 8 6 4 2 0 IEA analysis indicates that in the future it may be cheaper in a number of instances to import hydrogen than to produce it domestically. For example, Japan currently imports around 90% of its energy needs and, as its Basic Hydrogen Strategy shows, it views hydrogen as a source of energy diversification, emissions reduction and industrial leadership. IEA estimates that, for Japan’s industrial sector in 2030, importing electrolytic hydrogen from Australia (around USD 5.5/kgH2) will be cheaper than domestic production (USD 6.5/kgH2) (Figure 30). This assumes the production of hydrogen in Australia using combined installations of electrolysers, solar plants and wind farms in a region with high solar and wind resources (Chapter 2) and the subsequent export of this hydrogen to the point of use in Japan as ammonia or LOHC. The total cost of transporting the hydrogen from Australia to Japan (including conversion and reconversion) would be just over USD 1.5/kgH2, equivalent to USD 45 per MWh. Ammonia would be even more attractive if it could be used directly by the end consumer, thereby avoiding the additional costs of reconverting it back into hydrogen. The cheapest source of hydrogen would, however, still be substantially more expensive than natural gas. In 2030 the imported natural gas price in Japan is projected to be USD 10/MBtu, equivalent to around USD 1.2/kgH2. Although the actual cost differential may be slightly smaller than it looks because some hydrogen end-use devices may have a higher efficiency than natural gas devices, further cost reductions would be needed to improve the competitiveness of hydrogen against natural gas systems. Cost of delivering hydrogen or ammonia produced via electrolysis from Australia to an industrial customer in Japan in 2030 Hydrogen Domestic Ammonia Ammonia Hydrogen LOHC Import from Australia Notes: Assumes distribution of 100 tpd in a pipeline to an end-use site 50 km from the receiving terminal. Storage costs are included in the cost of import and export terminals. More information on the assumptions is available at www.iea.org/hydrogen2019. Source: IEA analysis based on IAE (2019), “Economical Evaluation and Characteristic Analyses for Energy Carrier Systems” and Reuß (2017), “Seasonal storage and alternative carriers: A flexible hydrogen supply chain model”. All rights reserved. The cost of transport from Australia to Japan could represent between 30% and 45% of the full cost of hydrogen; yet imports of electrolytic hydrogen could still be cheaper than domestic production. Imports of hydrogen produced from renewable electricity appear to make sense for a number of other possible trade routes too. If ammonia could be used by the end user without the need for reconversion back to hydrogen, then imports would be even cheaper. For example, the cost of Reconversion Distribution Transmission Import/export terminals Conversion Production PAGE | 82 IEA. All rights reserved. USD/kgH2PDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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