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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 4: Present and potential industrial uses of hydrogen Figure 44. 75 60 45 30 15 0 Theoretical potential for dedicated hydrogen demand for primary steel production The two main factors to influence future dedicated hydrogen demand for steel production are: the share of the DRI-EAF route in primary steel making, and the split between primary and secondary steel production in overall output. Considering the dynamics of steel stocks in the built environment, on current trends the share of scrap-based production in total steel production is projected to grow from around 23% today to 25% in 2030. In this case, the commercial gas-based DRI-EAF route could supply 14% of primary steel demand. This would require 8 MtH2/yr as a reducing agent (second column of Figure 44), doubling the use of hydrogen for DRI-EAF production from today’s levels. In the same case, if the share of secondary steel production continued to rise (to 29% by 2050) and the gas-based DRI-EAF route was used to satisfy 100% of primary steel demand, hydrogen demand in the sector could theoretically reach 62 MtH2/yr (third column of Figure 12). The two right-hand columns in Figure 12 are described in the next section. 100% 80% 60% 40% Sensitivity of specific hydrogen requirement Hydrogen demand 20% Share of secondary production 0% Notes: The 100% gas-based DRI case is one in which the gas-based DRI route grows in line with current trends until 2030, with the 2050 figure showing the theoretical potential if all primary production took place via gas-based DRI. The Blending + demo in 2030, 100% hydrogen DRI in 2050 case is one in which the HYBRIT concept is demonstrated at scale (1.5 Mt/yr) by 2030, and 30% of the feed to the remaining natural gas-based DRI-EAF capacity is substituted with an external hydrogen source. By 2050, the HYBRIT concept accounts for all primary production in this case. In the former case, the share of primary production and overall steel production figures are from a context in which current trends are projected, whereas the latter is one in which action is taken to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement (greater deployment of the secondary route and uptake of materials efficiency strategies). Specific hydrogen requirement assumptions: gas-based DRI-EAF = 43 kgH2/t of DRI; gas-based DRI-EAF with blending = 51-55 kgH2/t of DRI, 23 kg of which could be supplied externally; 100% hydrogen-based DRI-EAF = 47–68 kgH2/t of DRI. 95% DRI charge to the EAF is assumed in all cases. Current DRI-EAF facilities often operate with a higher share of scrap, as this lowers costs. Source: IEA 2019. All rights reserved. By 2030 the hydrogen requirement for the DRI-EAF route could more than double. By 2050 the use of this method for all primary production could lead to a 15-fold increase in hydrogen demand. 2018 2030 2050 2030 2050 Current trends to 2030, 100% gas DRI in 2050 Blending + demo in 2030, 100% hydrogen DRI in 2050 PAGE | 110 IEA. All rights reserved. Share of secondary produciton MtH2/yrPDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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