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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 4: Present and potential industrial uses of hydrogen today to 29% in 2030 and 47% in 2050, limited only by the availability of steel scrap. Our analysis suggests a slightly larger share of the gas-based DRI-EAF in primary steel production by 2030 (16%) in this case, and that progress on materials efficiency strategies would also be accelerated, leading to a reduction in the overall level of output. Two parallel technological developments relating to DRI-EAF are also assumed to take place in this case. First, 30% of the natural gas consumed in DRI-EAF production would be replaced by 2030 by externally sourced pure hydrogen from electrolysis, which could be done without major equipment changes (Chevrier, 2018). Second, progress on developing the HYBRIT concept (Box 10) would be sufficient to demonstrate the first commercial-scale 100% hydrogen-based DRI-EAF plant by 2030, supplying 1.5 Mt/yr of crude steel, or 0.1% of total steel demand. If these ambitious developments were to take place, hydrogen demand for iron and steel production would be 9–11 MtH2/yr by 2030 (the fourth column of Figure 44), similar to the level of 8 MtH2/yr expected on the basis of current trends. However, only around 4.5 MtH2/yr would be sourced from renewable electricity, with the remainder coming from natural gas. By comparison, under current trends all of the additional hydrogen demand would be met by natural gas without CCUS. This would require 230 TWh/yr of electricity, approximately equivalent to the total electricity consumption of Turkey today (Figure 45). Natural gas would nonetheless still play an important role in supplying the remaining hydrogen in 2030, resulting in 31 bcm/yr of natural gas demand, which is approximately equal to the natural gas consumption of Spain today. Coal-based DRI-EAF production would disappear by 2030 in this scenario, eliminating 12 Mtoe/yr, roughly the annual coal consumption of Mexico today. In the long term a Paris-compatible pathway would seek to drastically reduce CO2 emissions from primary steel production. 38 Using the 100% hydrogen DRI-EAF route for all primary steel production would largely eliminate CO2 emissions, provided the electricity was sourced from renewables. As Figure 12 shows, this would require 47–67 MtH2/yr (the fifth column of Figure 44). More than 2 500 TWh/yr of electricity would be needed to produce this much hydrogen, or roughly the combined electricity consumption of India, Japan and Korea today (Figure 45). A substantial but manageable amount of water would also be required as feedstock for electrolysers: around 0.6 bcm/yr, which is about 1% of total water consumption in the energy sector today. Some 500 Mt/yr of oxygen would be produced as a by-product; this could be put to use elsewhere in industry. 38 “CO2 emissions free” is not the same as being “carbon free”. Some carbon will continue to be required in the process of steelmaking, as it is a key chemical constituent of the final material. PAGE | 113 IEA. All rights reserved.PDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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