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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 4: Present and potential industrial uses of hydrogen Figure 45. Energy implications of fulfilling hydrogen demand via the DRI-EAF route Notes: Only the energy and hydrogen requirements for the commercial coal/gas-based and 100% hydrogen-based DRI-EAF routes are included. Demand figures are consistent with a scenario in which the goals of the Paris Agreement are achieved, including the implementation of materials efficiency strategies and maximum deployment of the secondary production route. Average hydrogen requirements for both the gas- and 100% hydrogen-based DRI-EAF routes are assumed in calculating the hydrogen requirements and energy inputs. Bubbles denoting energy and hydrogen requirements are sized on an LHV energy content basis. The hydrogen and energy quantities are equivalent, and not additive. 95% DRI charge to the EAF is assumed in all cases. Current DRI-EAF facilities often operate with a higher share of scrap, as this lowers costs. More information on the assumptions is available at www.iea.org/hydrogen2019. Source: IEA 2019. All rights reserved. While the role of hydrogen could expand dramatically in the medium to long term, gas would continue to play an important role even after 2030 while the shift took place. Cost competitiveness of cleaner pathways In the absence of sufficiently high CO2 prices to trigger a switch to low-carbon hydrogen, replacing unabated natural gas with renewable hydrogen in the DRI-EAF route would widen the difference in cost between the commercial DRI-EAF and BF-BOF routes (Figure 46). Energy and other raw material input costs represent upwards of about 45% of production costs for the DRI-EAF routes, so small price differences can make a big difference to cost competitiveness. Whereas the range of gas prices today makes the commercial DRI-EAF route competitive with the BF-BOF route in specific instances, the hydrogen-based DRI-EAF route, based on current estimates of key technology parameters, would only be competitive in those places with the lowest electricity prices. It would also be significantly more expensive than its natural gas-based counterpart (15–90% more), even if natural gas production involved CCUS (10–85% more). Among the other low-emissions pathways for steel production currently being explored, the “oxygen-rich smelt reduction BOF with CCUS” (HIsarna) route appears to have the lowest overall production costs in most regions in the current energy price context. According to the limited techno-economic information currently available in the public domain, it is less capital-intensive even than today’s commercial BF-BOF route, and could reduce direct CO2 emissions by around 80–90%. In most regions, the family of “CO2 management” pathways tends to be at a more advanced stage of development today. In the context of a long-term Paris-compatible pathway, however, the HIsarna design would have to be deployed in conjunction with a widespread CO2 transport and geological CO2 storage infrastructure. Another key consideration, which is not explored in Figure 46, is the stock of existing capacity. Despite recent efforts to decommission underutilised assets, the steel industry still Total crude steel production 2018 1 809 Mt/yr Total crude steel production 2030 1 821 Mt/yr Energy and hydrogen requirements for DRI-EAF Coal Gas Electricity Hydrogen (Mtoe) (bcm) (TWh) (Mt) 12 20 13 4 31 230 10 PAGE | 114 IEA. All rights reserved.PDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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