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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 4: Present and potential industrial uses of hydrogen Figure 46. 1 250 1 000 750 500 250 0 Estimated costs of steel for selected greenfield production routes in 2018 suffers from overcapacity, and the market remained fragile in 2018 (OECD, 2019). Furthermore, the BF-BOF route accounts for around 90% of existing primary capacity, an asset class in which steel producers are generally not anticipating substantial greenfield investments in the coming years. With many facilities utilising this technology having been constructed in the past 10–20 years, it is going to be difficult for new alternative production routes to outcompete them without policy intervention. These dynamics underpin the development of CO2 management pathways (Box 10), which generally seek to reduce emissions while making use of existing integrated steel facilities. HIsarna is an exception to this as it requires greenfield investment. To compete in the long term with its natural gas-based counterpart equipped with CCUS, the 100% hydrogen-based pathway currently looks likely to need low-carbon electricity prices in the range of USD 5–35/MWh (Figure 47). This translates into hydrogen costs of USD 0.7– 2.0/kgH2, assuming electrolysers with high efficiencies and low CAPEX requirements. As discussed in Chapter 2, these costs may be realistic in certain regions when using dedicated low-cost renewable resources, but are challenging to achieve elsewhere. Moreover, regions with low-cost renewables resources may involve extra costs if they are not endowed with sufficient reserves of iron ore and other materials, and if they are located far from centres of demand. Range CCUS costs Feedstock Fuel Fixed OPEX CAPEX BF-BOF DRI-EAF Commercial DRI-EAF w/CCUS Oxy. SR-BOF w/CCUS (HIsarna) Demo 100% hydrogen DRI-EAF (HYBRIT) 50% hydrogen DRI-EAF Notes: Oxy. SR-BOF = oxygen-rich smelt reduction. CCUS costs includes the costs of capturing, transporting and storing CO2. Range refers to the range of total levelised costs across regions, with the lower end of the range disaggregated for each technology. An availability factor of 95% is applied to all equipment and an 8% discount rate is used throughout. It is assumed that the electrolysis route is supplied with 100% renewable electricity. Natural gas-based and 100% hydrogen-based DRI-EAF considers 95% DRI charge to the EAF. More information on the assumptions is available at www.iea.org/hydrogen2019. Source: IEA 2019. All rights reserved. The hydrogen-based DRI-EAF route is between 10% and 90% more costly than its natural gas-based counterpart, and is highly sensitive to the cost of electricity. From a policy perspective, there are two key areas where support is needed to bolster the sustainable adoption of hydrogen as a reduction agent in the iron and steel sector. First, support is needed for demonstration projects that seek to scale up the 100% hydrogen-based DRI-EAF process; this could, for example, take the form of access to low-cost financing for increasing scales of demonstration, and funding to supporting the specific aspects of research and development (R&D) required to accelerate development. Pilot PAGE | 115 IEA. All rights reserved. Levelised cost (USD/t)PDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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