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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 5: Opportunities for hydrogen in transport, buildings and power Table 5. Potential uses of hydrogen and derived products for transport applications Current role Demand perspectives Future deployment Opportunities Challenges Cars and vans (light-duty vehicles) 11 200 vehicles in operation, mostly in California, Europe and Japan The global car stock is expected to continue to grow; hydrogen could capture a part of this market Hydrogen: Short refuelling time, less weight added for energy stored and zero tailpipe emissions. Fuel cells could have a lower material footprint than lithium batteries Captive vehicle fleets can help overcome challenges of low utilisation of refuelling stations; long-distance and heavy-duty are attractive options Hydrogen: Initial low utilisation of refuelling stations raises fuel cost; reductions in fuel cell and storage costs needed; efficiency losses on a well- to-wheels basis Power-to-liquid: Large electricity consumption and high production costs Ammonia: Caustic and hazardous substance close to end users mean that use is likely to remain limited to professional operators Demonstration and niche markets: ~25 000 forklifts ~500 buses ~400 trucks ~100 vans. Several thousand buses and trucks expected in China* by end- 2019 Strong growth segment; long-haul and heavy-duty applications are attractive for hydrogen Maritime Limited to demonstration projects for small ships and on- board power supply in larger vessels Maritime freight activity set to grow by around 45% to 2030. 2020 air pollution targets and 2050 greenhouse gas targets could promote hydrogen- based fuels Hydrogen and ammonia are candidates for both national action on domestic shipping decarbonisation, and the IMO Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategy, given limitations on the use of other fuels Hydrogen: Storage cost higher than other fuels Hydrogen/ammonia: cargo volume lost due to storage (lower density than current liquid fuels) Two hydrogen trains in Germany Rail is a mainstay of transport in many countries Hydrogen trains can be most competitive in rail freight (regional lines with low network utilisation, and cross- border freight) Aviation Limited to small demonstration projects and feasibility studies Fastest-growing passenger transport mode. Large storage volume and redesign would be needed for pure hydrogen, making power-to- liquid and biofuels more attractive for this mode Power-to-liquid: Limited changes to status quo in distribution, operations and facilities; also maximises biomass use by boosting yield Hydrogen: Together with batteries, can supply on-board energy supply at ports and during taxiing Power-to-liquid: Currently 4 to 6 times more expensive than kerosene, decreasing to 1.5–2 times in the long- term (Chapter 2), potentially increasing prices and decreasing demand Trucks and buses (heavy- duty vehicles) Rail Rail is the most electrified transport mode; hydrogen and battery electric trains with partial line electrification are both options to replace non- electrified operations, which are substantial in many regions * China = People’s Republic of China. PAGE | 125 IEA. All rights reserved.PDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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