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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 5: Opportunities for hydrogen in transport, buildings and power brand. The choice of what vehicle to buy, in other words, is not by any means just a matter of costs or price, or a comparative calculation of the total cost of owning and operating a vehicle. Both BEVs and FCEVs have some shared characteristics (such as zero tailpipe emissions, fast acceleration from a standing start and quiet operation) that may appeal to consumers while advancing a wider transition towards the use of low-carbon fuels in transport. They also have some different performance attributes that are likely to appeal to distinct consumer groups. Leaving aside the cost of hydrogen fuel, which is discussed in Chapters 2 and 3, the cost competitiveness of direct hydrogen use in FCEVs depends on how three critical cost components develop compared with their present and potential future competitors: the cost of the fuel cell stack; the cost of on-board storage; and the cost of refuelling. Fuel cell costs and potential for cost reduction The fuel cell has seen considerable cost reductions over the past decade (Yumiya, 2015), but costs remain high and production volumes are still low. The current commercial cost of a typical fuel cell is estimated to be USD 230/kW, although the use of state-of-the-art technologies is soon likely to bring this cost down to USD 180/kW (Papageorgopoulos, 2017). Costs could be further reduced in the future through research-driven advances in technology. It may be possible to increase catalyst activity and thus reduce the platinum content, which is one of the expensive components of the fuel cell. It may also be possible to develop a platinum-free catalyst. Research is also needed to optimise the design and integration of fuel cell components in the membrane electrode assembly and to decrease the costs of the bipolar plates (which are expected to account for an increasing share of the future costs) and balance of plant components (e.g. compressors and humidifiers). Costs could also be reduced in the future through economies of scale: increasing the number of units fabricated in a single manufacturing plant reduces the specific cost of each component. About half of the system cost is in the bipolar plates, membranes, catalyst and gas diffusion layers. The combined cost of these components could be reduced by 65% by increasing plant scale from 1 000 to 100 000 units per year, bringing system costs down to USD 50/kW. Increasing the scale further to 500 000 units per year would be likely to decrease the cost by only an additional 10%, taking it down to USD 45/kW (Wilson, Kleen and Papageorgopoulos, 2017). These cost reduction estimates must, however, be balanced against the challenge of simultaneously improving fuel cell performance and durability. Higher durability requirements could translate into higher fuel cell cost and limit the cost reductions achieved through economies of scale. Recent US Department of Energy (DOE) data take into account these trade-offs and provide a preliminary durability-adjusted cost target of USD 75/kW (US DOE, 2019) . However, automakers are working to increase durability, such as via constructing fuel cell operation maps to mitigate performance degradation. Economies of scale in manufacturing could be achieved quickly. Global truck sales stood at around 1.6 million medium-duty and 1.8 million heavy-duty vehicles in 2017. A medium-duty truck requires about twice as much power as a car, and a heavy-duty truck needs about four times as much. These requirements could, however, be met by installing fuel cell stacks next to each other; the most cost-effective way of proceeding might be to equip a medium-duty fuel cell electric truck with two fuel cell stacks, and a heavy-duty truck with four. To reach a 5% global market share in trucks would require five fuel cell system plants producing 100 000 units (stacks) a year. China would need 10 plants producing 100 000 units annually to satisfy just a quarter of its current annual sales for domestic medium- and heavy-duty trucks. The passenger vehicle sector has a market size much larger than trucks, with annual new car sales of around PAGE | 131 IEA. All rights reserved.PDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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