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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 5: Opportunities for hydrogen in transport, buildings and power 400 stations is likely to be on the order of USD 0.5–0.6 billion. This would rapidly increase, however, and for a mature market with larger stations (> 1 000 kg/d) an investment of USD 35– 45 billion47 would be required to serve just 5% of the global car fleet (around 60 million vehicles). As well as collaborating with industrial stakeholders on roadmaps for building refuelling stations in the initial phases, before their revenue can sustain investment in expansion, policy makers could incentivise owners of captive fleet stations to open them for public use, thus allowing general users to access more stations (Box 13). Box 13. Policy opportunities for promoting the use of hydrogen in road transport Policy options to promote the uptake of FCEVs include fuel economy standards, zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates, feebates (which tax the worst performing vehicles to subsidise those that perform best in terms of CO2 or air pollutant emissions) and purchase subsidies. The first two put the onus on private industry to provide technological solutions to climate and air quality externalities and give them the freedom to find the solutions that work best for them. Fuel economy standards and feebates can be technology-neutral, while ZEV mandates are more specific and could help to secure the demand that hydrogen refuelling stations need to bring down the costs of delivering hydrogen during an initial deployment phase. Focusing initially on building refuelling infrastructure for captive fleets would provide a way to address the barrier of underutilisation. Examples of captive fleets include truck and handling vehicles at industrial sites and clusters and at ports; buses; and taxi fleets. Refuelling stations originally built for captive fleets could be opened for public use, thereby offering refuelling points to early adopters of FCEVs at a low marginal cost. An alternative approach would be to give credits to refuelling stations (under fuel standards) based on the gap between actual and targeted utilisation rates, as in California where a range of policy instruments combine to support private investment in refuelling infrastructure (CEC and CARB, 2018). Public policy can also play a supportive role in the initial stages by: Easing regulatory burdens associated with the transport of hydrogen (e.g. in vehicles on bridges and tunnels) and with the permitting and construction of necessary infrastructure. Engaging with industry stakeholders that are able to make the required investments, brokering commitments among industry partners to support credible and well-structured business plans, and offering a critical assessment (e.g. based on audits) of areas for improvement of such plans at regular intervals. Temporarily repurposing funds from vehicle or fuel taxes to decrease the investment risk of nascent hydrogen refuelling station networks. Source: CEC and CARB (2018). 47 Assuming 20% of stations would be small scale (200 kg/day) and 80% would be large scale (1000 kg/day) as the market developed. PAGE | 134 IEA. All rights reserved.PDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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