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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 5: Opportunities for hydrogen in transport, buildings and power Currently hydrogen fuel cell cars are generally more expensive than battery electric cars, owing to the high cost of the fuel cell and fuel tanks and to the fact that they are generally designed to have a longer range (Figure 54). The competitiveness improves if one assumes the same range for FCEVs and BEVs, although such range would be only possible today for a limited number of BEV models. If cost reductions through economies of scale were to bring down fuel cell costs to USD 50/kW and those of batteries fall to USD 100/kWh, then FCEVs become competitive with BEVs at a range of 400 km. If fuel cell costs were only to fall to USD 75/kW, for example because of the need for durability requirements as discussed earlier in this chapter, then FCEVs would become competitive with BEVs at a range of 500 km (Figure 55). This underscores the fact that FCEVs can be economically attractive for consumers who prioritise driving range. Utilisation of refuelling infrastructure is another determinant of the future competitiveness of FCEVs. In the initial roll-out phase, the cost of hydrogen fuel can be expected to range from 12% (at USD 9/kgH2) to 22% (at USD 18/kgH2) of the total cost of ownership. As discussed above, the additional cost accounted for by the hydrogen refuelling station depends on size and utilisation: stations with a capacity of 200 kgH2 per day that dispense fuel at 10–33% of capacity add a margin of USD 4–13/kgH2, and that margin declines with station size and higher capacity utilisation. The risk of underutilised hydrogen refuelling stations highlights the importance of securing high utilisation to bring down costs in the initial stages of FCEV deployment, even in cars, the mode where fuel costs are least determinant. It is worth noting that in California it took around two years to increase the average utilisation of the network from 5% to 40%; the average station size is now around 200 kgH2/d (CEC and CARB, 2018) and some stations are still operating at below 10% utilisation (NREL, 2019). The high cost of synthetic fuel, however, suggests that transitioning to alternative powertrains – whether battery or fuel cell electric – is likely to be a lower-cost strategy for reducing CO2 and local pollutant emissions from cars and trucks, also considering the significant energy consumption and need for biogenic CO2 this route would require. Figure 55. 200 150 100 50 0 Break-even fuel cell cost to be competitive with BEV in the long term 100 300 500 700 Battery price USD 150/kWh USD 125/kWh USD 100/kWh USD 75/kWh USD 60/kWh Note: More information on the assumptions is available at www.iea.org/hydrogen2019. Source: IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Vehicle range (km) Fuel cell electric cars are most competitive on a total cost of ownership basis with BEV cars over longer driving ranges. To break even with battery costs below USD 100/kWh could require achieving fuel cell costs below USD 60/kW. PAGE | 136 IEA. All rights reserved. Break-even fuel cell cost (USD/kW)PDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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