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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 5: Opportunities for hydrogen in transport, buildings and power Cost competitiveness of hydrogen-based fuels in the maritime sector Ships have high per-kilometre energy intensity and large power needs (up to 130 MW for the largest container ships), and therefore pose demanding fuel requirements. The main cost components for ships are the same as for road transport: infrastructure (bunkering facilities), on-board equipment (fuel cell/engine and storage) and fuel. Information on the costs of using liquid hydrogen for international shipping is uncertain. One estimate for the additional cost of bunkering facilities suggests that liquid hydrogen infrastructure could be 30% more expensive than LNG (Taljegard et al., 2014). However, this estimate is likely to omit the upfront costs associated with developing a new infrastructure for hydrogen that does not currently exist. The main cost components are the storage and bunker vessels, which would need to be scaled in parallel with the number of ships serviced. On-site or nearby hydrogen would be needed for small ports given the smaller flows and the high cost of dedicated hydrogen pipelines. Conversely, ship and infrastructure costs are a relatively small component of total shipping costs over a 15-year lifetime, with fuel costs being a much larger factor. Among hydrogen-based fuels, ammonia is already globally traded and some of the infrastructure that would be needed to use it as a fuel already exists (distribution to ports and storage tanks). However, new bunkering facilities would need to be built; massive scale-up of ammonia production, port and distribution facilities and storage tanks would also be needed. As an indication, satisfying shipping demand in the long term would require 500 Mt of ammonia, almost three times the level of current global production and around thirty times the volume of ammonia currently traded. A switch to low-carbon fuels seems unlikely to occur in the absence of policy, whether mandates, direct carbon pricing, and/or more flexible and potentially more palatable measures such as low-carbon fuel standards (LCFS) (ITF, 2018). Charterers, who currently oversee more than half of container fleet operations and who hire vessels from ship owners on a lump-sum or per-tonne basis, are likely to operate much shorter payback periods. Ships serving long-distance maritime trade routes may offer the best potential scope for hydrogen, ammonia and other hydrogen-based fuels. This is because fuel cell system and hydrogen storage costs have a comparatively lower impact when compared to fuel costs (Figure 57). In addition, the space requirements of fuel cells could be an issue, especially for smaller ships (< 2 MW), as they need almost double the space of an ICE (Minnehan and Pratt, 2017; van Biert et al., 2016). Storage of liquid hydrogen requires at least five times more volume than conventional oil-based fuels, and ammonia requires three times more volume. In the longer term this could require the redesign of ships, shorter distance trips and more frequent refuelling, reduced cargo volumes, or a mix of these operational factors, depending on ship and cargo types and routes (UMAS, 2018). Low-carbon fuels are expensive today compared with fuel oil and LNG (Figure 57). Fuel prices are the key to cost competitiveness; the share of total cost that comes from infrastructure is much lower for ships than for other transport modes, currently accounting for about 3% of the total cost of using hydrogen in shipping on the basis of a hydrogen price of USD 10/kgH2. This would rise to 17% if hydrogen prices were to decrease to USD 2/kgH2, and could be significantly higher (up to 40%) if bunkering facilities were oversized or underutilised. As for road transport, risks of underutilisation of bunkering facilities can be hedged by: rolling out smaller vessels; using smaller storage tanks (which can be expanded as the capacity grows); PAGE | 140 IEA. All rights reserved.PDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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