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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 5: Opportunities for hydrogen in transport, buildings and power (IEA, 2019b). Hydrogen fuel cell technology is most competitive for services requiring long- distance movement of large trains with low-frequency network utilisation, a common set of conditions in rail freight. The use of hydrogen in rail could be combined with its use for forklifts, trucks and other railyard and logistics hub machinery to decrease costs and improve flexibility. Aviation Aviation accounted for almost 2.8% of global energy-related CO2 emissions in 2017, and air passenger traffic is expected to more than double to almost 16 000 billion km/yr by mid-century under current trends. Efficiency improvements should reduce energy consumption and slow the increase in energy demand, but alternative fuels will eventually be needed to avoid increases in emissions from the sector. Advanced biofuels and hydrogen-based fuels are leading options. While there have been feasibility studies and demonstration projects testing the scope for using hydrogen in small planes (DLR, 2016; Schilo, 2009; Airbus, 2000), the use of pure hydrogen as an aviation fuel requires significant further R&D. Hydrogen’s low energy density and the need for cryogenic storage would require changes in aircraft design, as well as new refuelling and storage infrastructure at airports. More projects – 130 in total in 2018 – are in development for the direct use of electricity than for pure hydrogen, mostly for urban air taxis (Thomson, 2018). However, direct electrification also faces challenges, specifically relating to battery weight and costs. In contrast, hydrogen-based liquid fuels would require no changes to design or refuelling infrastructure at airports. Synthetic fuels based on electrolytic hydrogen (so-called power-to- liquid) are estimated to be four to six times more expensive than conventional jet fuel currently (see Chapter 2 for more information on the cost factors underpinning hydrogen-based fuels). Fuel represents a large share of the total costs of operating aircraft so this would significantly increase the operating costs and, presumably, ticket prices.51 This would be the case regardless of the cost of conventional jet fuel, which could itself become more expensive due to carbon pricing or other policies to reduce emissions. Estimates of the CO2 price that would be needed to encourage a shift to power-to-liquids in aviation in the long term vary widely, from USD 115/tCO2 to USD 660/tCO2, with the lower value accounting for the possible value provided to the wider energy system via the electricity grid (ETC, 2018a; Malins, 2017). Given the lack of other alternatives, most estimates place these costs among the higher abatement costs to complete the transition to a low-carbon energy system. As with biofuels, the use of hydrogen-based fuels in aviation could be promoted through a target for blend shares. Even a modest target could help to demonstrate feasibility and support the scaling up of production. The standards development organisation, ASTM, currently sets blending limits for alternative fuels that vary by fuel from as low as 10% to up to 90%. These might provide a helpful reference point for public and private decision makers to set upper bounds, and could be updated as new engine technology emerges. Besides on-board use of hydrogen in aviation, hydrogen is already used today in a few auxiliary power units that generate electricity when the jet engine is not running. Such units, which usually run on natural gas, can account for up to 20% of ground aircraft emissions (Baroutaji et al., 2019). 51 This could also help to decrease demand through price elasticity or shift between transport modes. It has been estimated that a fourfold increase in fuel prices in Europe could result in almost 60% higher ticket prices and 30% less demand (Murphy et al., 2018). PAGE | 143 IEA. All rights reserved.PDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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