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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 6: Policies to boost momentum in key value chains Box 19. Realising existing government targets would drive down costs by 2030 Road transport remains a central feature of most hydrogen projects and policies worldwide., with 40% of the water electrolyser capacity in publicly supported energy projects since 2000 being installed to supply hydrogen for buses, commercial fleet vehicles or passenger cars. Several governments have targets for the deployment of FCEVs and hydrogen refuelling stations which, in combination, would mean putting 2.5million vehicles on the road by 2030, served by 3 500 hydrogen refuelling stations. This would translate into a hydrogen demand of 0.4 MtH2/yr, which is almost as much as two large ammonia plants. These numbers would rise after 2030: Korea alone has a target of nearly 3 million FCEVs (cars, buses and trucks) by 2040 to address air pollution and promote industrial growth (MOTIE, 2019). If these 2030 targets were realised, the impact on cost reductions would be likely to be dramatic. With 2.5 million FCEVs on the road and 3 500 refuelling stations, analysis suggests that fuel cell costs could be reduced by around 75% and refuelling station capital costs could be halved. The IEA estimates that electrolyser costs could also be cut by around one-third if all this hydrogen were to be supplied by electrolysis. These targets would require a very large increase in hydrogen production and in FCEV numbers, although it would only mean achieving a share of FCEVs in the global road vehicle stock that is half of that occupied by all electric vehicles today, or about 0.2%. Sources: MOTIE (2019), “Government announces roadmap to promote hydrogen economy”. Deployment of FCEVs and refuelling stations and official future targets 1 200 1 200 1 000 1 000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 Korea Japan California Germany China France Source: AFC TCP (2018), Survey on the Number of Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles, Hydrogen Refuelling Stations and Targets; METI (2019), Strategic Roadmap for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells. 00 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Opportunities to accelerate deployment Hydrogen-powered vehicles are not cost-competitive today, but have the potential to become much more competitive as production and use rise in line with the targets set by governments, leading to innovation and reductions in costs (Chapter 5). The road transport sector is also the most active area of hydrogen deployment today, with the highest number of projects and policies (Chapter1). Meeting these targets, however, requires parallel expansion of PAGE | 186 IEA. All rights reserved. Thousand vehicles on the road Hydrogen refuelling stationsPDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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