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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 6: Policies to boost momentum in key value chains infrastructure for hydrogen supply, vehicle refuelling and vehicle manufacturing (including fuel cells). For investors in each component of the value chain, the risks and costs will be multiplied if there are uncertainties about investment in the other components. The task for policy makers is to identify which types of vehicle to focus on, and how and where to encourage infrastructure development so that the near-term costs to taxpayers are minimised and the strategic long-term value, in terms of decarbonising transport, is maximised. Fleet vehicles, including taxis, light commercial vehicles and buses, with high daily mileage and freight vehicles with fixed corridor routes are promising opportunities, and could help increase the utilisation rate of refuelling stations on the main routes they use – a key determinant of fuel costs. They could also link with industrial cluster value chains to reduce supply chain risks and foster long-term transport hubs, including for shipping. Trucks are a source of air pollution, and the stringent air quality standards expected in the future would make hydrogen trucks more attractive. As described in Chapter 5, trucks that have a high mileage and large mass are well-suited to hydrogen, but even the whole global truck fleet, at around 56 million heavy- and medium-duty vehicles today, might not be enough units to achieve the needed cost reduction in fuel cells. Infrastructure deployment strategies will need to be suitable for different fuel cell vehicle types as their markets expand. Once at scale in a given region, hydrogen infrastructure built for the transport sector can be a stepping stone to using hydrogen for flexible power generation, for example. One strategy would be to incentivise the addition of hydrogen refuelling along key transport corridors, given that a relatively small number of the world’s busiest highways carry a lot of its commercial traffic: the Beijing-Hong Kong-Macau Expressway, Germany’s Autobahn 7 near Hamburg, Highway 401 in Canada and the I-405 in Los Angeles in the United States carry a combined total of around 1 million cars and trucks per day. Another approach would be to start with truck fleets that operate out of coastal industrial hubs, helping to concentrate and scale up initial investment in hydrogen supply. Because city-level governance will play a critical role in supporting the deployment of both hydrogen vehicles and infrastructure in urban areas, all levels of government need to work closely together so that clusters and inter-city corridors can be selected to intersect with the cities where hydrogen transport is likely to prosper first. California’s Zero- and Near Zero- Emission Freight Facilities Project and Germany’s H2Mobility initiative show different approaches to this challenge. Near-term policy priorities Targets and/or long-term policy signals. Official targets for FCEVs and hydrogen refuelling station deployment exist in at least 18 countries and regions. Others might consider following their example. These targets need to be firmly situated within a robust strategy for transport overall, which should identify the priorities for hydrogen FCEVs alongside BEVs and other transport modes. Long-term transport strategies can encompass aviation, rail and shipping too. Demand creation. Overarching policy frameworks such as fuel economy standards, renewable fuel obligations and low-carbon fuel standards should include all types of hydrogen supply and value them in accordance with life-cycle emission reductions, alongside other technology options. While non-financial incentives like zero-emission cities and priority lanes, zones and parking spaces can help, significant consumer demand will not materialise without a range of available vehicles at acceptable prices, together with predictable and affordable fuel prices. Initially this is likely to require direct purchase subsidies, tax credits and other measures such as PAGE | 187 IEA. All rights reserved.PDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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