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46 Technical Summary For CO2 stabilization scenarios between 450 and 750 ppmv, published estimates of the cumulative amount of CO2 potentially stored globally over the course of this century (in geological formations and/or the oceans) span a wide range, from very small contributions to thousands of gigatonnes of CO2. To a large extent, this wide range is due to the uncertainty of long-term socio-economic, demographic and, in particular, technological changes, which are the main drivers of future CO2 emissions. However, it is important to note that the majority of results for stabilization scenarios of 450–750 ppmv CO2 tend to cluster in a range of 220–2,200 GtCO2 (60–600 GtC) for the cumulative deployment of CCS. For CCS to achieve this economic potential, several hundreds or thousands of CCS systems would be required worldwide over the next century, each capturing some 1–5 MtCO2 per year. As indicated in Section 5, it is likely that the technical potential for geological storage alone is sufficient to cover the high end of the economic potential range for CCS. Perspectives on CO2 leakage from storage 9. Emission inventories and accounting An important aspect of CO2 capture and storage is the development and application of methods to estimate and report the quantities in which emissions of CO2 (and associated emissions of methane or nitrous oxides) are reduced, avoided, or removed from the atmosphere. The two elements involved here are (1) the actual estimation and reporting of emissions for national greenhouse gas inventories, and (2) accounting for CCS under international agreements to limit net emissions.15 Current framework Under the UNFCCC, national greenhouse gas emission inventories have traditionally reported emissions for a specific year, and have been prepared on an annual basis or another periodic basis. The IPCC Guidelines (IPCC 1996) and Good Practice Guidance Reports (IPCC 2000; 2003) describe detailed approaches for preparing national inventories that are complete, transparent, documented, assessed for uncertainties, consistent over time, and comparable across countries. The IPCC documents now in use do not specifically include CO2 capture and storage options. However, the IPCC Guidelines are currently undergoing revisions that should provide some guidance when the revisions are published in 2006. The framework that already has been accepted could be applied to CCS systems, although some issues might need revision or expansion. Issues relevant to accounting and reporting The policy implications of slow leakage from storage depend on assumptions in the analysis. Studies conducted to address the question of how to deal with impermanent storage are based on different approaches: the value of delaying emissions, cost minimization of a specified mitigation scenario, or allowable future emissions in the context of an assumed stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Some of these studies allow future releases to be compensated by additional reductions in emissions; the results depend on assumptions regarding the future cost of reductions, discount rates, the amount of CO2 stored, and the assumed level of stabilization for atmospheric concentrations. In other studies, compensation is not seen as an option because of political and institutional uncertainties and the analysis focuses on limitations set by the assumed stabilization level and the amount stored. In the absence of prevailing international agreements, it is not clear whether the various forms of CO2 capture and storage will be treated as reductions in emissions or as removals from the atmosphere. In either case, CCS results in new pools of CO2 that may be subject to physical leakage at some time in the future. Currently, there are no methods available within the UNFCCC framework for monitoring, measuring or accounting for physical leakage from storage sites. However, leakage from well-managed geological storage sites is likely to be small in magnitude and distant in time. While specific results of the range of studies vary with the methods and assumptions made, the outcomes suggest that a fraction retained on the order of 90–99% for 100 years or 60–95% for 500 years could still make such impermanent storage valuable for the mitigation of climate change. All studies imply that, if CCS is to be acceptable as a mitigation measure, there must be an upper limit to the amount of leakage that can take place. Consideration may be given to the creation of a specific category for CCS in the emissions reporting framework but this is not strictly necessary since the quantities of CO2 captured and stored could be reflected in the sector in which the CO2 was produced. CO2 storage in a given location could include CO2 from many different source categories, and even from sources in many different countries. Fugitive 15 In this context, ‘‘estimation’’ is the process of calculating greenhouse gas emissions and ‘‘reporting’’ is the process of providing the estimates to the UNFCCC. ‘‘Accounting’’ refers to the rules for comparing emissions and removals as reported with commitments (IPCC 2003).PDF Image | CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE AND STORAGE
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